Progressive Futures -- Update

Wednesday October 31st-

Corn – Market higher on crude oil and inflation fears. The Fed did announce a cut but they also pretty well said that is it and are going to the sidelines. There was one vote against it and that vote favored no cut. I'm with that person as once again we are putting off the inevitable. Corn made new highs for this leg today and now have $3.90 in their sites. If crude collapses tomorrow, corn may follow as we see some risk growing on the long side of corn except in the new crop. Nothing new as far as positions, long term we are bullish.

Wheat – Down with everything else sharply higher. Man if the tank corn in the next few days, wheat will look like a led balloon; however, tanking corn may not be that easy. We are still short calls here and they are working very very nice.

Beans – Off the highs but strong on crude oil and corn prices. Still this bounce is suspect and we would rather own the market a little lower. Near term, we can see a back and forth following the other outside markets.

Rice – New highs and yes I am having second thoughts on being long Jan rice and short Jan 1220 calls at 25 cents. Here is the thing, today those long futures positions made 29 cents while the calls only went 7 1/2 cents against me. I may not have been long at all without the safety the call offered and I'll take 22 cents out of the market anytime. Tonight, the call is trading at 32 1/2 with the futures at $12.15. I still like the idea of capturing the short premium and then buying more futures later, on a break...and there will be a break.

Natural Gas – Powerful day as energy shot higher everywhere. Dec up 34 and looking like it could run over $8.70 fairly quickly. If crude corrects, so will Gas. Still a big IF the way it looks right now.

Cattle – Down 80 and still looking sideways. I like the fundamentals but traders are not in the buying mode right here. Longer term, I like the numbers.

Dow – Up 137 on the Fed cut. Let's see the close tomorrow before getting to excited.

Cotton – Up 21 after being lower yesterday. Sideways for now.

Gold - Up 10.60 and closing in on $800.00 an ounce. Just be careful as we are not too far away from where the market should correct from.

Tuesday October 30th-

Corn – As we pointed out, the action in corn could signal a correction. How much? Don't know yet as it could be just a 15 or 20 cent break; however, we could have a mini-leg down here as well. Longer term we see it higher. Long futures short calls and short Puts remains our current position.

Wheat – Market lower today and now down another 10 overnight. We are 30 cent off the highs of yesterday as of tonight as the market trades down 10 cents at 9 PM. We have not made it a secret, we think the market is going lower longer term especially in the old crop. Nothing has changed as we are short calls. That is not an aggressive short position.

Beans – This market is correcting and we are watching it being short calls. At some point I will sell Puts but not right now. Let's see how low this break can take us.

Rice – I think we are sideways for the next 6 to 8 weeks between 12.00 and 11.60 in the January. We are short $12.20 calls and long futures.

Natural Gas – December closed over $8.00 but there is a chance this rally is going to stall in the days ahead. Crude oil is down $3.00 today and there is a chance it could fall to $85.00. We are not trading this one at all but on a strong break, we could sell some Puts in Heating Oil.

Cattle – Up 40 and still sideways.

Dow – Down 78 and we remain on the side.

Cotton – Down 77 and nothing new to report. Sideways for right now. Longer term I like it but I am not trading it right now. If I were, I would be looking to sell some Puts.

Gold - Down $4.60 and and another $4.00 in the overnight trade. As I said last night, gold is probably going to break in the days ahead even further IF the Fed says anything about inflation as a problem.

Monday October 29th-

Corn – Higher but off the highs in the last 15 minutes to the point that we may be ready to see a correction in this move higher.

Wheat – Touched limit up but couldn't hold it. Rally should be sold.

Beans – Higher but again unable to hold the move higher. We may need to break to to find support.

Rice – Down 6 and looking at the picture over the next 6 weeks I see it sideways.

Natural Gas – Higher with crude. Cold weather forecasts are going to be watched for now as heating season is upon us.

Cattle – Up a little. Looking for more information but it looks sideways to a little lower right here.

Dow – Up 63 but we are still out.

Cotton – Up 17 and nothing new.

Gold - Strong day higher but frankly, the dollar is the key to this market near term. Look for the Fed to cut but warn they see inflation ahead and fewer cuts. If that happens, the dollar will turn on the sellers and a rush to exits will bring the gold down hard.

Sunday Night October 28th-

Corn – Corn finished strong on Friday and is up 2 cents here overnight. Corn is challenging its recent high and the question is will it get through it on the first try? $4.04 is the high in March corn and is 14 cents away. I doubt we can breach that level on the first attempt but it can easily happen before thanksgiving. Right now we are long Dec 08 corn, short 390 Dec 07 calls and short Dec 350 and 340 puts. Everything is working and on a break, we will roll our short calls to higher strike prices in March and buy futures.

Wheat – As I said Thursday, we could still see a bounce here of 30 to 40 cents. We remain short Dec 900 calls and March '08 $10.00 calls. On a good rally. I will sell futures and sell Puts but not right here.

Beans – We are long here but Friday's action showed some weakness. Small specs are addling to shorts and the funds are big longs. Weather will probably rule the week. We are long some futures and short some calls for now.

Rice – Up 4 to5 again. Looks like another assault on the recent high but anything can happen here. We are long futures and short calls.

Natural Gas – Quiet Friday but it is up 9 cents here overnight. Huge supplies of Gas will limit rallies and the question remains, can crude hold the line and Natural gas stay with it?

Cattle – Down 100 with the market watching the economy near term. Still looks sideways.

Dow – Up 134 and I don't have a clue but I don't like the action that much. It is a good thing the majority of US companies are invested 0verseas but if the US economic engine stalls, the world economy will suffer.

Cotton – Up 31. Longer term I like them, shorter term, not so much.

Gold - Up 16.80 and making new highs. Tonight it is up another $4.30 as I type this. We recommended long ETF positions long time ago. That is still our best advice for now.

Thursday October 25th-

Corn – Strong day and as we felt this morning, it was a trend day higher. Near term we could work toward major resistance at $3.90 before Thanksgiving.

Wheat – Down 8 to 10 today but at least that is not limit down. Near term, I see little chance for much of a bounce here but we could work back off the lows 30 to 40 cents. That will be a selling opportunity and one a good bounce I will sell futures and sell Puts. More on that in the days ahead.

Beans – As I said yesterday, this market looks good and today it shot 18 higher as we keep looking for more bean acres. The war continues and I see little resistance until we get to $10.35 in January. Long futures with covered calls is the way to go here on breaks.

Rice – Up 4 to5 ...read last nights comments as they are still in step with the market.

Natural Gas – Up 13 with crude up over $3.00. More strength near term.

Cattle – Up 45. We can chop around here for a while but longer term still looks good and owning cow-calf is a great place to be right now.

Dow – Down 3 after being down over 100 again today. This one is all over the place.

Cotton – Up 43. Longer term I like them, shorter term, not so much.

Gold - Up 5.90 and looking strong on the outside markets with the Euro higher and crude looking at the weakness of the dollar world wide as a bullish factor. There is room for another leg up in the Euro against the dollar and I can see it trading at 1.45 before thanksgiving. That is bullish gold. Since we recommended the GLD Exchange Traded Fund, it has rallies almost 5%. It is not too late. Buy breaks near term.

Wednesday October 24th-

Corn – We took some action today with the market lower, selling the December 350 Put again and rolling down the short $360 puts in the process. This puts us long if the market falls below $3.43 in December which is great by us because we would roll that position to December 2008 which is where we want to be long term. With wheat limit down the market was off but it couldn't find a lot of selling but the bids were backing up especially with wheat down so hard. Down 5 today isn't that bad and longer term, we want to own it but now we will have to get through the wheat wash out.

Wheat – Limit down again today with news that Russia will not be raising its tariff rate right now. We were busy here today too as we bought in our December 2007 $10.00 calls (23 cent profit) and sold March 2008 $10.00 calls for 21 cents. We are still short the Dec $9.00 calls and will looks to buy them in around 2 cents at some point. On a rally, we may get brave enough to sell futures and sell out of the money Puts but right now, we will let the market find some support first.

Beans – A little lower but mostly unchanged all day until the close when the selling over powered the buyers and took beans down 6. We are still in the buy side looking at buying January futures and selling some calls for protection but today we didn't do anything. Right now we are out but tomorrow this time, I doubt I can say that.

Rice – Market finished 2 higher even with the action on the rest of the grain floor. We were very busy here today buying January and selling January $12.20 Calls. This is a short term trade but we like the fact that the market is pausing here and well supported. It could drop 30 cents, which is why we sold the Calls at 26 cents. If the market just sets here we will make the 26 cents over the next 8 weeks, if it falls, we will own January at $11.68 and if the market rallies to $12.50, we will make all but 4 cents of the move. Can't see a losing side to this trade if you are longer term bullish.

ARI backing up to paying after the first of the year may be saying they have enough rice for now but they will buy and hold it because longer term they want to control more rice. This lets us sell the calls with some comfort level but if rice explodes to the upside, we will be buying back those calls and selling higher ones. I'm not sure how much rice can explode near term.

Natural Gas – Very strong run today indicating the $6.70 level is going to support near term.

Cattle – Down 140 points today on no real beef news. The Dow falling 150 points (currently) may be the culprit. We are buying cash cattle here for calf production but other wise we aren't expecting a huge break in cattle.

Dow – Down 162 as I write this and it could be a lot worse by 3 PM.

Cotton – Down 150 with a weak technical picture short term. Fundamentally I like it longer term but short term, it could be real choppy.

Gold - Up 2.40 and still looking like a top near term but I am not trusting that opinion at all. I want to own it long term and will buy a break.

Tuesday October 23rd-

Corn – Down 4 cents and right back on the lows from yesterday. Wheat being down limit didn't help and harvest has 40% of the crop still to go. We will buy this break if we get it so be ready. We have already sold some $3.60 Puts and will add some $3.50 Puts if the market weakens. We are also long Dec 2008 corn futures and want to buy more around $4.00 if we can get a break to there.

Wheat – Limit down today after falling just short of our target at $8.86. If we get follow through tomorrow, things could break faster. New crop was down hard today as well so we will be watching that contract as well over the next few days.

Beans – A little higher with everything lower. I still like the beans and today they didn't disappoint being the only commodity high on the grain floor.

Rice – Down 2 to 6 and holding above support even with the break in wheat. Next few days could be interesting but we remain long and wanting to buy more on a break.

Natural Gas – Down 12 but failing to close below $6.70. A close under today's low sets the stage for another leg down.

Cattle – Down 27 after being up 27 yesterday. Nothing to do here....at least right now.

Dow – Up 109 as once again the Dow works higher after a collapse. This is par for the Dow and I would expect it higher tomorrow as well.

Cotton – Up 33 and closing over 65 cents. I still see cotton higher longer term.

Gold - Up $4.00 with the dollar lower. The markets maybe putting a top in the Euro and Gold given the back and forth nature and volatility. Give it some room and lets let it prove where it is going near term.

Monday October 22nd-

Corn – Down 5 3/4 but it is almost 6 off the lows. I don't see much of a break coming here but it is possible to see another 10 to 15 lower than today's close. Even so, I sold Puts today thinking the worst case scenario is owning December corn below $3.48 1/2 (closed at $3.64 1/2.) If corn can sell off toward $3.55 in December, I will probably sell more by selling the $3.50 Put. Selling Puts is a good way to start getting positions here. The September $3.90 put is trading for 35 cents so selling puts would put you in a position to own September corn at $3.55 at worst. I doubt September corn ever trades that low. In any case, there are several strategies out there to consider as a starting place to get long corn for 2008.

Wheat – I said this morning we could take out $8.10 on this dip but the market after opening came right off the lows and then turned on the after burners to move 17 higher on the day. The Russian announcement of a 30% tariff help support the market all day. The close was up 15 1/2 at $8.71 and setup a test of the Trident target of $8.86 and then major resistance at $9.08. I am looking to sell calls here again but I will wait for a turn in the market. The next turn could get real ugly. By the way, a move to the $8.90 to $9.30 level fulfills the Kondratieff top condition.

Beans – With the outside markets lower beans started that way but was able to come off the lows 16 cents to close down only 6 cents. We are in no mans land and to be honest, I don't really want to trade them right now. I can see a further rally over the short term but if the weather conditions really change in Brazil then there could be a hefty break here. Still, current technical's are friendly.

Rice – The market broke off today but the selling dried up and buying was enough to move the market off the lows by almost 10 cents. The close is down 8 to 9 but the market was well bid going into the close. We are buying breaks and today's break of 15 cents was enough to add a little. January back to 11.60 to 11.70 is still possible but I am beginning to wonder if we are not on the verge of moving to a higher plateau.

Natural Gas – Down 15 but off their lows just like the grains. I'd like to own natural gas but there is a warning on the technical charts about a move under $8.70 in the November contract. I'd like to see us move away from this level before jumping in.

Cattle – Cattle on feed report last Friday was a little bearish but the market likes the current cash market levels firming so we moved a little higher today. Up 27 and 80 off the lows.

Dow – After the 366 point break of Friday, you would have expected a bounce today. As I write this, we have been 100 lower early only to rally 160 points into the lunch hour and now, with 30 minutes left we are 60 points back down from the highs and up a whole 4 points. We may close up 30 to down 30 who knows. It just feels different this time but every time this has happened, the market has rallied back. We will see if this is going to be different.

Cotton – Down 53 but it still looks good longer term.

Gold - Down $8.40 after being down $16.00 early. No sign of a top but there is a warning signal in the technical action. Crude was down over $2.40 early and still finished off $1.42 so there are some things afoot. The dollar was higher as well. If these markets are turning direction, gold could have a nice sell off near term and it will be a great buying opportunity.

Friday October 19th-

General Comment - A little computer problem kept me from doing the update Friday. I decided to wait until Sunday night to write the comments and see how the market was trading. Friday's action was firm in all the market but soybeans with Old crop wheat limit up although not strongly bid there. Tonight (Sunday) the markets are lower and sharply lower in beans. Near term I can see most of the grains either way but the buying last week may have been weak buying so we may need a break to find major support. In corn we are looking at buying 2008 Dec corn on any break below $4.00 and in fact, like owning it right here but are hoping for a nice break. We are short $10.00 calls in wheat along with some $9.00 calls as well. Longer term we think the current bounce is a selling opportunity and if beans are gong to break because of good rains and conditions in Brazil, then we could see this wheat rally fizzle right here. Hang onto all short options positions here.

In rice, it is on its own so don't be looking for any pressure from the grains or outside markets near term. While we are up against resistance we might see a pull back but longer term we want to buy a break here.

Thursday October 18th-

Corn – Outside markets didn't reverse and the corn caught fire on ideas that the acreage war is going to heat up now that harvest is on the down hill slide. A trend day higher today as corn heads for resistance from 3.72 up to $3.78.

Wheat – Not much of a performance as wheat has bearish fundamentals piling up. Yes, there is a shortage but acreage is expected to balloon and that will keep selling coming for wheat near term. We are remaining in the short call position here.

Beans – Strong day but most of the damage done to the bear camp was done by 9:45 this morning. The market still finished strong and may need to run toward the $10.20 level to stop the buying here near term.

Rice – The market got great news this morning on sales and shot higher. At one time up 25 cents; however, the market didn't hold it and sold off to finish up 9 to 10. Near term, we could go either direction.

Natural Gas – Down 12 today and consolidating. We are still on the bull's side but a sell off in the energy complex is possible near term.

Cattle – Up 42 today with the outside markets helping and boxed beef prices a little better.

Dow – Up 3 and still not looking so good.

Cotton – Nice day up at cotton got some good demand numbers. Up 154 points.

Gold - Up 6.40 with no confirmation of a top. Looks higher now but a reversal remains possible.

Wednesday October 17th-

Corn – Market finished lower tonight by 3 to 4 cents. The outside markets reversed today but they will need to follow through tomorrow to push ideas that the dollar has found support and crude oil has made a short term top. If that is happening, we could see more pressure on corn especially if the dollar strengthens. We will be watching corn closely.

Wheat – Lower today again and right down on support. A move under $8.10 could bring some heavy selling.

Beans – The stronger market today but it couldn’t stay higher. Tomorrow will be interesting if the outside markets follow through on today’s action.

Rice – Inched higher today but at the end it looked like the local traders tried to mark (pushing the market at the close) the market higher and couldn’t get it done. Selling at the end gave us a 6 cent range in the last 2 minutes. If the other grains succumb to selling tomorrow, we may take out the low made yesterday at $11.39 in November. What concerns me is the locals could turn on the market and push it lower as they lighten up their long positions if forced to. The locals have a history of supporting the market during the first part of a correction and then turning to push the correction even further. I don't know for certain that the locals are long but the action looks like they may be and a lower push tomorrow could bring them in as sellers.

Natural Gas – Up 9.3 cents today as crude had a roller coaster ride. Market is still in a bullish stance right here but selling pressure could occur at any moment if the crude starts to correct.

Cattle – Down another 50 as concerns for recession surface again. I don't know why there should be concern as we are absolutely sure one is coming in the next 12 months.

Dow – Down 20 and today, PB dropped under 50%. market remains setup for more downside pressure.

Cotton – Up 10 and again, nothing happening. I mean NOTHING!!!

Gold - Market looks like it is struggling here. I can see a correction occurring soon but the dollar may need to help.

Tuesday October 16th-

Corn – The market sold off but didn't stay down as the market bounced 5 cents from the lows. Near term we could see more consolidation and if crude pushes over $90.00 look for corn to follow higher; however, when crude breaks, and it will break...so will corn. Longer term higher but near term volatile and choppy.

Wheat – Lower again but the market came way back from the lows finishing 15 off the lowest price for the session. Here in the night session (9 PM) the market is up 6 1/2. Look for as much as a 30 cent bounce from here but this rally is a selling opportunity in both he old and new.

Beans – More weakness here as beans have become the weak sister of the group. Longer term higher but just as in the corn, near term chop and volatility.

Rice – Read our morning comments. market finished near the lows and looks like it could break another 20 to 30 cents based on technical indicators. The problem is the fundamentals do not agree and indicate that type of break should be bought. Also, look at our sales recommendation page tonight.

Natural Gas – Down 8 and watching the rest of the energy complex. Looks higher if crude can mount one more push toward $9.00.

Cattle – Down 60 and going no where. I can see it testing 90.00 before expiration but I can't see a major break.

Dow – Down 71. Looking weaker and weaker.

Cotton – Up 18. Nothing happening here.

Gold - Unchanged but still looking higher until the tension eases in northern Iraq.

Monday October 15th-

General Comment... The dollar was lower today with crude oil sharply higher. What concerns me tonight is that we are getting warning signals of an impending top in the Euro which of course means a low for the dollar. Now when I get such a warning, it still could be a couple of days to two weeks before the turn occurs but you should be aware that a lot of the strength in the corn and beans has been to outside markets more than their own internal fundamentals. So for the next few days, we will be watching the energy markets and the dollar to see if there is any change indirection which would cause a break in the grains.

Corn – Another big up day in corn as more traders cover bull spread and the market continues to look at the size of the 2007 crop. Crude oil was up over $2.00 and the dollar was weak which added to the buying in the corn. Near term it still looks higher to me as we try an balance the price of beans, corn and wheat; however, a change in direction for the outside markets will cause a turn here as well for a short term situation.

Wheat – Old crop touched limit down again and took out major support; however, my guess near term is for a bounce in old crop given the outside markets which are of major importance. The dollar is headed for a near term low and I think crude will back off when the dollar starts to firm. We could be in the last phase of this bear leg in the buck but I will not try and pick a top for the Euro. We will give it room.

Beans – Friday's break was a surprise and today we got it all back but not in a grand fashion. Corn led the way today so once again it looks like beans could be weaker than we thought they should be. We will watch them carefully at this level but for now, we side with the bulls if the dollar can continue lower.

Rice – Cash prices firmed and the market sold off. Typical rice market. It is possible the mills wee selling futures today to ty and encourage selling of cash rice. My guess is the near term demand is filled and we see another drop back in the premiums but here is the thing, longer term, things are extremely tight and a major break remains doubtful.

Natural Gas – Up 47 cents as crude explodes and the dollar weakens. This should allow us to climb toward $8.00 near term.

Cattle – Up 75 cents. I can see it either way near term but cash prices for calves in Texas will remain a little lower as we work through the main selling season.

Dow – Down 108 but 80 points off the lows. I don't like this market but near term, the earnings will tell the tale. For me, that is history and earning for the fourth quarter will be critical.

Cotton – Down 55. The market ignored the loss in the WTO panel for cotton as that was no surprise. The US will drag this out another 2 years and all that is happening is bad news for the current trade round.

Gold - Up $8.40 as the dollar slides toward new lows. If the buck holds its current low against the Euro, there will be a major profit taking play in gold. We would not be buying it right here.

Friday October 12th-

Corn – Up 7 today on the USDA report. But why??? In the actual picture of things, it was the bean numbers bullish and corn should have followed them higher but the corn shot up and beans reversed while the corn held. The one thing I can see is no one wants to sell corn here. Do you??? I sure the heck don't!!! Next week will be interesting. Longer term we remain bullish and near term...it could be just as we said this morning, a case where the market doesn't do what it should.

Wheat – The market was called 10 to 15 higher this morning and I said during the Webinar "I wouldn't be surprised if it hit limit down but for sure, a rally will be short lived with these numbers." Sure enough, the old crop hit limit down but it didn't stay there. Rallies need to be sold here and we are in a phase where the market will continue the wild swings so don't marry any position.

Also, the basis has firmed everywhere (especially in the northeast) as more wheat is needed near the ports. This can add to the support in futures for awhile. If the basis starts to weaken, December could drop like a rock!!!

Beans – Boy...I didn't get this one right for sure. The numbers were bullish and yet in many ways this market acted the worst of the whole bunch. I mean, wheat deserves be lower but those numbers this morning were in no way bearish for beans and for them to put in a reversal raises a big red flag.

Monday will be an important day. If this is just a small profit taking phase then the market can continue lower into major support around $9.60 over a couple of days but if we sell off hard Monday. Then a correction is underway that could be severe in front of more harvest pressure. I can see it either way. We still would buy breaks.

Rice – No rally here as beans and wheat head lower and profit taking shows up. We still are in buy mode on breaks.

Natural Gas – Up 10 and sideways. Market remains near support in the spring and summer months so a major break remains unlikely unless it is a very warm winter.

Cattle – Down 55 and sideways as well. A $2.00 drop is not out of the question.

Dow – Up 59 and pretty quiet.

Cotton – Up 12...nothing happening right now.

Gold - Down $2.60 but still over $750 an ounce.

Thursday October 11th-

General Comment – Tomorrow's report will set the tone so I will not make any comments tonight. Wheat was limit up on short covering in front of the report. Beans look to work higher and corn lower without any surprises tomorrow. We will give you all the details in the morning on our monthly Webinar update.

Wednesday October 10th-

Corn – Up 4 today with one more day before the USDA report. We will wait for the numbers before commenting further here.

Wheat – Higher today with some short covering. Market could rally more behind the report Friday but the highs are in for this one...at last for now.

Beans – Still looking the best of the grains. Problems in Brazil could really spark this one higher near term but the numbers Friday probably won't help.

Rice – A little lower with more spreading. Buy breaks here.

Natural Gas – Higher again today. Nothing new from us here as we want to own breaks.

Cattle – Up 25 today again today.

Dow – Down 85 but well off the lows. No sign of a top or change in the situation right now.

Cotton – Up 117 and pulling away from major support. We will wait for the USDA numbers before commenting further.

Gold - Up $2.00. Still looking strong.

Tuesday October 9th-

Corn – Up 2 3/4's today but 6 1/4 off the high. I expect chop the next couple of days as the market looks for direction from Friday's USDA report....by the way, have you registered yet for our Friday Webinar?? Near term possibly lower but longer term we like it higher...look at next years December and you will see it is holding like a rock.

Wheat – The bounce came today as I expected but it didn't hold as the market broke 31 cents off its high and finished off over 14 in the December while July was up just over 3 cents on the day. We could be under $8.00 here this week at this rate. I doubt that happens but the longs are in huge trouble here and it could get worse. We will sell a good bounce when we can get one.

Beans – Sharply higher as news it is too dry in Brazil keeps support under this one. If those conditions hold for another month...look out.

Rice – Heavy rolling from November into January as the market prepares for the report Friday. I can still see it either way near term.

Natural Gas – Up 17 after being lower on the day. Longer term I like this market but near term it will stay under pressure on rallies. I will buy a break.

Cattle – Up 25 today. Nothing new for us to comment on.

Dow – Up 120 and still chugging along. No sign of a corrective top yet.

Cotton – Up 55. I am looking to own below 62 right now.

Gold - Up $5.40 and under $750. I would like to own this one under $730...apparently, so would the whole world.

Monday October 8th-

Corn – We finished down 2 today which is not bad given the limit down move in wheat. We did sell the $3.30 Put for 12 cents today and want to sell the $3.20 Put for 10 if we can get it there. These are small trades that we can add too later on if the market can test the $3.20 level. Harvest continues and tomorrow we will see how far along the process is as today was a government holiday. Nothing new from us, we want to buy this break and are starting to have a little more ownership on buy backs we need. Remember, selling Puts is a limited Profit trade. You can only make what you sell the Put for. Do not be buy futures yet. There is no buy signal for that. This is just a value play believing that corn is not going much (if at all) under $3.20.

Wheat – So much for a bounce. I thought we might get one early this week but the market finished Limit down with all three wheat exchanges showing down 30 cents in all the first three contracts. In Chicago, there was about 34,000 contracts offered limit down on the close. We are short the $10.00 calls and the $9.00 calls as well with huge profits now. Tomorrow may see some buying but I doubt the $10.00 call will see any push against it; however, the $9.00 call may see some upward pressure. For now we will hold the $9.00 and on a good bounce, roll the $10.00 Put lower but not right now.

Any bounce has to be sold and with the New crop down 29 cents today. that chart is looking really bad as well. We are sold 20-33% depending on your situation but near term, we may want to do some more option work but this time in the new crop.

Beans – Down another 15 cents. I am rolling the $10.20 call down and will be buying futures to enter a "covered call" position. Now that is what I am doing in an effort to make a little on the bearish side but longer term I am bullish. I am looking to own beans at or right under $9.20 in Jan which is just under $9.00 in the November.

Rice – Strong buying hit this one this morning and it never stopped as we rallied up 27 at one time and finished up 18. We are bullish here but think a sell off is possible. Right now, I am not sure where that sell off may come from. Everyone knows I am long term bullish and at this time, the futures has taken off and left the cash market in the dust. Every time I think the rice futures may get low enough to sell cash and go to the board, the market rallies sharply. It is as if the futures doesn't want cash prices to offer us the chance to stop storage and interest. Anyway, it certainly doesn't pay to sell cash and move to paper and I am not letting any paper positions go either right now.

Based on today's trade, we should be higher tomorrow with the buying still controlling the market. I think $12.00 is likely near term unless the commercials decide they need some cash rice and let the board break so we who will move to paper, can let them have it. Longer term, we remain bullish and cash and futures has no where to go in a major move...except higher.

Natural Gas – Down 22 today as Crude collapsed on the dollar strength and the weather is warmer than normal. SO far, nothing to put a squeeze on the gas supply so look for the market to chop around.

Cattle – Up 12 and looking weak. Longer term we like it but there could be another 2 to 3 bucks lower near term.

Dow – Down 22 un a do nothing session. Looks higher still for now.

Cotton – Down 80 and looking to test that 62 near term support. If I am going to own this one, it will be below 62.

Gold - Down $8.50 with the dollar strength. The dollar is a little overbought over the last few days so we may see some pressure back on the buck tomorrow and we'll see what gold has in it then.

Friday October 5th-

Corn – Unchanged today as this market pauses with all the selling over the last several days. For the week we lost 30 cents as the market fell under harvest pressure and the break in wheat. The market should test $3.25 to $3.35 but in the whole picture, that is not that much lower. We will want to start owning this market soon. Look at selling the $3.20 Put at 10 cents this next week if we can get it there. Also selling the $3.30 Put for 12 or higher isn't that bad of a start if you want to be more aggressive.

Wheat – Down 16 for the day and 50 cents for the week in December. July was actually up 5 cents for the week as the bull spreading unwinds in the wheat. The close today was at $8.90 which is right on the support area and while I see the market moving on down toward $8.50, there is a USDA report this week on Friday so the market may find some support and consolidate until those number come out. I think a bounce early this week is possible but still want to hold on to the short $10.00 calls.

Beans – Last night we said we were close to getting some stronger selling and today we saw that selling develop. Down 15 today and 50 for the week. I am looking for $9.00 to be tested now but again I am not all excited about being short beans and in fact, I'm not...well I am short some $10.20 Calls but that was put on almost two weeks ago against a long futures position. While I took off the futures, I didn't lift the covered Call position and remain short there. In any event, I want to own this break but will let it run its course. I think we have plenty of time to get long here.

Rice – The market rallied back after yesterday's selling but it didn't hold as the wheat broke giving longs in the rice reason to take some profits as well. A move under 11.75 sets up a test of support at $11.60 with longer term support at $11.45 in January. That is 40 cents lower and while I can see it not ever getting there, near term look for the market to focus in on the USDA report this Friday as well as the way the wheat trades. If wheat craters further and falls another 40 cents, rice could take out support.

Natural Gas – Down 38 as the market gives up on weather problems near term...like we said Wednesday, there wasn't enough storm strength to do any damage and the market broke hard today. Longer term this is a buy but for now, it is still being controlled by the weather and the current storage glut.

Cattle – Down 165 on the day during a week that wasn't so good for the cattle market. South Korea stopped taking US beef again when they found spinal material in a shipment. Remember, that is where Mad Cow can come from...IF IT WERE IN THE US SUPPLY OF BEEF!!! Bottom line, South Korea doesn't want American beef and wants to find ANYTHING they can to keep it out. As for prices, this sell off will not last too long given the current reduction of on-feed numbers; however, near term we could go lower as this is all sorted out.

Dow – Up 91 and still running higher. The US dollar is actually helping the stock market a bit. For now, I don't see any reason to not see more strength. The news this week makes the Fed look a little silly for a 1/2 point cut and probably takes another cut in October off the table for now.

Cotton – Down 29 but I still like cotton longer term. Near term support is at 62 cents and longer term weekly chart support sits at 60 cents. That makes a nice window to look for bottoming action.

Gold - Up $4.50 and still looking like it is in a bull market. Longer term we like but still will buy breaks.

Thursday October 4th-

Corn – Down 2 with the late sell off in wheat. Nothing new from me. This market should stay weak as far as the trend goes but longer term it is a buy. If wheat really sells off tomorrow, I expect corn to do the same. Remember, the market was over 4 cent higher today at one time and couldn't hold it. There is plenty of selling overhead near term. We will sell rallies and let breaks run, get ready on $3.20 puts to be sellers if you need to be a buyer.

Wheat – Read our comments over the past few days. The close today in old crop was down 21 cents yet new crop was actually up 6 cents. That indicates the spread is working in and odds now move a little higher for an old crop top in wheat. If you sold the $10.00 calls hang on to them, you should have sold any old crop you are holding and gotten to 20% to 33% in new crop. A move under $8.90 tomorrow could be a fatal blow and really bring in the selling in December wheat. A move back over $9.30 keeps the hopes alive for a test of recent highs.

Beans – We are really close to getting stronger sell conditions for beans. Near term, a move toward $9.00 seems likely but that doesn't mean it will happen given the current fundamentals. Longer term we like the beans and they will give up the hardest. We want to own a bigger break here but realize it may be hard to get a BIG one. We will be looking at selling puts here as well.

Rice – WOW!!! OK, I wrote a lot last night and after today, I have to write a lot more...

246,000 Metric Tons of rice were on the export sales sheet this morning. That is largest number in several years maybe 4 or 5years. What does the rice market do?? It makes a new contract high by 1 1/2 cents and then turns to sell off closing up only 2 and 15 cents off the highs under COMMERCIAL SELLING. That is NOT bullish; however, it certainly isn't that bearish either. Read our comments again from last night. My ideas are that a minor setback remains possible right now and that setback should be bought. It may not happen though and that is why we do not want to sell anything here and try to buy it back later. Remember, this is the rice market and it usually...I mean it...it usually goes to an unrealistic value before it moves higher.

One more thing, I am now trading the January as my signal market and today January DID NOT make a new high. We have huge sales and January can't make a new high??? The close was $12.00 tonight and near term, $11.75 is support. A move under $11.73 sets up a test of $11.60 and then $11.40. I give it odds of testing $11.40 of about 25% so you can see I am not that bearish. A 60 cent break from here maybe but even if it were to happen, longer term we are going higher.

Natural Gas – Up 13 today as the market keeps an eye on the gulf and news that predictors have another major storm in their guesses for the remainder of the year.

Cattle – Up 50 and still sideways here since August 1st. We are testing the lows so watch it carefully.

Dow – Up 6 in a ho-hum nothing session.

Cotton – Up 2...talk about ho-hum!!!

Gold - Up $8.10 and we still want to own breaks here.

Wednesday October 3rd-

Corn – Down another 4 cents today as more selling on harvest pressure occurs. No sign of a bounce here at all and I don't expect anything but a minor rally from here. Corn is going to get too cheap but the bottom line is that it is going lower near term.

Wheat – I said last night on the audio update and here in the written comments, a bounce was likely as wheat tops hard. Last night wheat touched limit down and then proceeded to rally 51 1/2 cents to today's high before selling back off and finishing the day up 5 cents. This is what we call a hard top and again, it will remain volatile and keep traders guessing. We are short $9.00 and $10.00 calls and have sold some new crop. By the way, the July was 10 cents under Dec most of the day but at the close...July is 4 cents higher than the Dec for the day.

Bottom line: We remain in our stance that the market has topped but a good rally remains possible. A move back under $9.00 could bring in a MAJOR collapse. We will still sell rallies.

Beans – Back higher today after the big drop yesterday but we only gained 8 cents of the 47 lost yesterday back. Of all the markets, I like the beans the most at this price over the short term. Today's low needs to hold or a test of $9.00 is coming.

Rice – Here is what I said last night..."I think everyone knows we have been looking at wheat for direction here and today with the collapse of wheat, rice sold off losing 14 cents. I must admit, I am a little surprised they didn't hit it harder. Tomorrow, wheat will attempt , at some point, to find its first level of support and attempt to bounce. That could come from 20 to 30 cents lower or maybe only 10 cents lower overnight. In any event, rice will probably test support at $11.73 which is another 12 cents lower tonight." Today's low was $11.75 and the market bounced 20 cents. The bounce in wheat came from 30 cents lower and fueled the rally in the rice. Today, rice finished higher on the day by 7 cents as those who sold the rally last week, covered shorts or moved into Jan and March. As I said last night, I am still surprised at the strength in the rice right here but I must ask you the question, can rice divorce itself from the other grains and move higher IF there is a major top in the other grains??? I don't think so.

Here is the other part of last nights update...

So here we go, if the trend is taken out, where is support after $11.73...Answer is...$11.60. That could be hit if wheat collapses in a big way. For instance, if wheat hits and sticks limit down tomorrow, that would put it below $9.00 and probably be enough to put Jan rice under $11.73 and there is even a chance, we could trade close to 11.60 IF and it is a BIG IF, wheat collapses further.

Guys, wheat didn't stick limit down and rice never traded under $11.73 in the January contract...so with the failure of wheat to hold the limit down collapse, rice was able to rally and its close is good but not great. It will take a move over the contract high of $12.09 to give more strength than the weakness from other grains. This is why I am not selling any positions for a possible break that looks so logical. It is also why I don't particularly like trying to leg out of Nov and into Jan or March. So...the main point remains the same as last night...

Here is my main point, what is 55 a cent break in today's rice market??? Yes, I know it is a lot but in reality, it isn't. Be prepared for a big break here but know it may not ever be that bad. In any event, we want to own more on this break and selling puts still makes the most sense on starting that process.

Read the whole set of comments from last night below...I can't do any better than that!!!

Natural Gas – Down 13 as the storm scare falls apart. We said last night that..."This too is a selling opportunity as the inside internal storm dynamics are not strong enough to put a major hurricane into the gas producing areas...at least not right now. Look for some selling if thing starts to fall apart." Right as rain and we may see more selling near term.

Cattle – Down 57 in a controlled break for cattle. We still like owning in the field and longer term long positions for fat cattle contracts.

Dow – Down 91 as the market can't hold over 14,000. Maybe the air IS a little too thin up there. Doubt it.

Cotton – Up 16 and quiet.

Gold - After being up $6.00 we sold off and finished unchanged. Look for a test of $7.10 unless something else in the way of news comes out.

Tuesday October 2nd-

Corn – Limit down locked with almost 14,000 contracts offered there and by the way, that is not that many for corn. This was not a big surprise as we have been warning, break the wheat and you will break the corn. Today with wheat heavily offered limit down, corn tried one rally which was a gift and then settled in down 20 cents.

The window for long term support in corn is $3.25 to $3.35 for December. I was not sure we would get back down there but today's action makes me think so. Here is what I will be doing. I will start the buy back process by selling the $3.30 and $3.20 December puts as we approach this level and we start to see support. Once we see the market start to look like it is bottoming, we will be looking at long futures.

Wheat – Stampede for the exits today as wheat closed limit down with 34,000 (that is a lot for wheat) offered limit down. Using options, the market is trading 7 cents lower at the close. $9.22 is where is closed and major support is $9.17. If that level gives way, and it probably will, then look for the market to test $9.10 and then under $9.00 if things really get bad.

Is this the top?? I am betting it is. Get old crop 100% sold if you are already not there. New crop farmers, sell a little. I think it is OK to sell up to 33% at this level but you may want to hold it to 20% but in any case...get something sold NOW!!! We have been saying ot but once again, this is the time the markets top, the indicators now point to one and the charts are saying the market is overbought and the $9.61 1/2 high may be the highest price for wheat that we see...for a long time.

Even with that said, wheat may top very hard and a sharp rally to test resistance could occur once the panic selling subsides. Right now I am short the $10.00 call and the $9.00 call. I say this so you know that I am talking my position here. I also have nice profits in those positions tonight so there is some cushion for a bounce and the way this one has gone up, we could see this break turn quickly for another rally. If that happens, I will be recommending another sell point during that rally. If we break under$9.00, then I can see a bounce alright, but it won't be anything like we have seen.

Beans – Nice break today. This break could last another 50cents lower as we absorb harvest but this is a buying break and we will be doing the same thing we talked about with corn. I am preparing to sell puts and then buy futures. We will exit the market buy selling calls and then selling futures...get the drift. Right now, we are in watch mode as the market looks for support.

Rice – I think everyone knows we have been looking at wheat for direction here and today with the collapse of wheat, rice sold off losing 14 cents. I must admit, I am a little surprised they didn't hit it harder. Tomorrow, wheat will attempt , at some point, to find its first level of support and attempt to bounce. That could come from 20 to 30 cents lower or maybe only 10 cents lower overnight. In any event, rice will probably test support at $11.73 which is another 12 cents lower tonight. I am looking at selling some puts to add to positions here and get closer to 50% long. The trend line tonight is running through today's low as the close is right down on the current upward line. Here is the thing, the current trend line is too steep. We need a correction to get in a more normal trend line slope. A more normal slope puts support at $11.30 in the January...that is 55 cents lower than today's close. While I don't think we are headed that low...this is the rice market!!! Never forget it either!!!

Natural Gas – Up 37 on storm fears as a possible storm development concerns the shorts in the market. This too is a selling opportunity as the inside internal storm dynamics are not strong enough to put a major hurricane into the gas producing areas...at least not right now. Look for some selling if thing starts to fall apart.

Cattle – Down 62 as feed costs dropped a bunch today. Meal, Corn and Wheat feed were all sharply lower and that let some of the shortage scare out of the market today.

Dow – Down 40 as we test the 14,000 ar