What we wrote back in October of 2009...

The narrative goes backwards with the latest date first.  You can scroll to the bottom of the comments if you want to read them in order of occurrence.  

Friday October 30th -

Corn – We finished down over 13 cents as the market gave back all of yesterday’s gains and again closed under $3.70.   The market is set to work toward $3.45 near term.  Watch outside markets as well as we could see a lot of pressure from all sides early next week.  

Wheat – The dollar is propelling this market lower along with the outside markets.  Corn will also drag on the wheat so near term it looks lower.   

Beans – November is down 12 today which was not as bad as corn.  Longer term I really like beans but I would certainly like to be long from much lower levels.   

Rice – January was 28 higher today as rice continues to push higher on fears of a return to the rice values of early last year.  While I highly doubt it and believe this particular rally will end very badly it certainly hasn’t ended yet.  I mentioned on the video last night that this market is going to go up until it doesn’t.  When it doesn’t, there is going to be an ugly break.  Again, I am not long or short and will wait for a reason to sell it.  We will have a lot more on this tomorrow when we put up the Week in Review Market Video.    

Cotton – Unchanged and no sign of a top here either.  A close under 66 will push this one into a correction. 

Natural Gas – Basically unchanged and that is with Crude Oil down $2.70 as I type this. 

Crude Oil – Higher today but Dec is having a hard time getting back to $80.00.  With the dollar firming even more, we see this one breaking even further. 

Dow – With an hour to go the market is down 230 points.  The last hour is going to be very important.  A sharp break in the Dow today will setup a critical Monday trade so keep in touch with us on this.  We will have a full update on our Video post tomorrow. 

Cattle – Lower as the stocks give up value.  We could see a good break here if the equities start a major correction.      

Thursday October 29th - 

 Corn – Big rally today as corn bounces 11 cents with the US dollar sharply lower and crude oil sharply higher.  Outside markets are having more influence than the actual corn fundamentals are and that means volatile action extreme vales on trade ranges.  We think this bounce is a correction but with the money the funds have to throw at inflation and dollar concerns, who knows?   Technically the damage is done and this rally will be met with selling before we get back to the recent top.                     

 Wheat – A dollar trade here too.  Look for more upside tomorrow but we will approach a selling zone rather quickly here. 

 Beans – Up 17 but here too the market looks like it is being drug around by outside market concerns.   Out technical indicators show that we could bounce some more but $10.00 is going to be a place for resistance.   

 Rice – Another up day as rice gains 24 cents and we move toward the recent highs.  The January looks to be able to make new highs short term given the current technical strength with $14.75 the target on a move over $14.52.  I am out looking for a place to hedge.  With all the volatility of these markets, this may be wild over the next couple of weeks.     

 Cotton – Up today as we continue the charge higher.  No sell signals yet so no reason to do anything for now.   

 Natural Gas – A little higher today after another injection increase and an even higher inventory number.  The good news is the amount of increase is dropping compared to last year at this time.  We think we are headed toward a buy zone and will start to look for reasons to own in the near futures.    

 Crude Oil – Once the dollar started to sell off crude oil rallied sharply touching $3.00 higher.  Is the dollar rally over?  It is too hard to know for sure but it will take new lows for the green back to move the technical systems in Crude oil from the short side of the trade.       

 Dow – Up 200 points after GDP growth number today and the market bounced off its 9 week moving average.  Can we make new highs?  I sure think so but be careful if we start to roll over tomorrow and break sharply lower.   After testing support we have rallied back and that puts us cautiously I the bull camp with a close eye on the trade the next few days.   

 Cattle – Down 80 and looking like a top now.  We are not far from the 9 week moving average so let’s see if that holds.  Fundamentals support the market at lower levels so we are not in any hurry to trade here. 

Wednesday October 28th - 

Corn – Down almost 2 cents on the day in a quieter market but under pressure most of the day.  Nothing new from us as rallies should be sold near term and there should be some.               

Wheat – We finished Down 8 as the market continues to fall under pressure from the dollar.  We still see the market lower but the current rate of collapse is going to moderate. 

Beans – Down 5 as the market finished in the middle of the range.  If the dollar keeps on running higher, the beans will follow lower.   

Rice – Big day up as rice caught news of possible Indian demand and concern for more rain in Arkansas sent prices higher.  We wrote about this last night and today’s action doesn’t change much but we did hear that some of the cash bids have improved 25 cents on both hybrid and conventional rice.  The technical picture looks better tonight so I sure wouldn’t be short until we get a solid sell signal.  If enough people believe that the US supply is going to be shrinking in the November report we could enter a good up move.  The problem here remains we have such a high number to cut into that as we approach the November report, profit taking or protection is likely to grow.  I am just not that bullish with what we know now but again, I’m certainly not that bearish either.  I’m out and waiting for a better picture to emerge.           

Cotton – Some of the shorter term indicators have turned down on this one.  We will wait for the daily systems to agree.

Natural Gas – Lower with the entire energy complex.  Tomorrow we will get the current gas inventory numbers.  They will still show record levels so more downside is possible but we are looking for a reason to own on this break. 

Crude Oil – December crude is now approaching $77 as the dollar moves higher pressuring the crude oil.  Volatility is going to be high here near term but the direction rests in the dollar.       

Dow – Down 119 and now looking like it is in full correction mode. 

Cattle – It held up very well today.  We have some signs of a top but no confirmation.  We will give a few more days. 

Tuesday October 27th -

 Corn – Another down day losing over 7 cents as all the grain markets were lower except for rice.  Today’s close is right on the 21 day moving average which is still rising.  I think I have said all I can about this market topping.  We may see some bounces which should be sold but the risk to the downside is still 25 to 35 cents with some rallies along the way.  Heavy selling may come in under $3.68. 

 Wheat – This market was down 20 yesterday and now down 24 today as wheat collapses.  We sold all of our remaining wheat on Friday and right now that is looking pretty good.  We are still short on the Spec side and will hold that for now but may actually buy corn at some point to make this a short wheat/corn spread.  For now we will ride the break.  Technically this one looks really bad. 

 Beans – The Soybeans broke down over 15 cents as weather appears to be changing.  Longs in the market are now in the mode of selling rallies and many times that just doesn’t happen until it has dropped much further than expected.  As I have been saying, we are hoping for a significant break here to own it longer term.  We are looking for Jab to be under $9.40 before buy signals develop later this year or right after the first of January.     

 Rice – The only market higher today with January finishing up 9 cents but that was 18 cents off its high.  OK…it is time to make sure we are all on the same page here.

 Let’s Talk:  India last week said they were dropping their import duties until September 2010 to allow imports.   The logical reaction is for the market to firm up on the idea that India is getting ready to import rice.  While that is a logical reaction, it is not the probable solution. 

 Will India import rice?  Well they can now that they have dropped the duties but people in the know in India still say it is unlikely they will import any rice.  Why?  Because they are setting on such large stocks from last year and that if there is a shortage, there is a chance they will import wheat as a substitute and not rice.  In any event, the idea we are on the verge to see a large sale to anyone because of India’s monsoon failure has some real problems in it. 

 Now don’t hate the messenger but understand while there is longer term bullish aspects to the market, the current situation in cash sales and milled rice business appears to be bearish.  Here is an article that came out today and it’s worth your time to read.      

 Read - Imports of Rice to India Not Likely at least for several months…       

 Some of you are going to say, “Yah but can you believe this article?”  I don’t know.  Maybe these Indian officials are blowing smoke to keep the market from going higher but logically that doesn’t make a lot of sense.  Why didn’t they buy rice as quietly as possible and then drop the import duty?  Time will tell if they are telling the truth or not. 

In any event, the cash market remains dead and there is little export business to get excited about.  Longer term the Philippines will need to buy some rice which will probably come from Thailand.  Indonesia is going to need 1 million metric tons and that too will come from Asia.  India, if they ever need rice may just buy wheat.  So there you have it. 

 The first buyers in this market may find themselves holding these positions for awhile and you may suffer some real pain.  At this moment I have only a small dog in the hunt.  I have sold half my rice and want to buy a break in the futures but I have no rice futures positions at all and am not looking for one right now especially with the futures $1.50 higher than the cash market here in Texas.  If you are long, I think you may be just fine in the long run but make sure you know why you are long.  If on the other hand you are holding all your cash rice and long futures to boot…well, all I can say is good luck.         

 Cotton – Here we finished down 41 points but well off its lows.  There is still no sign of a top but we may get one in the next few days.

 Natural Gas – Just a little higher here today with the markets finishing closer to the highs than the lows.  We closed back above the nine week moving average and we could bounce a little more near term.  We still see the December near $5.00.

 Crude Oil – Higher today but Dec is having a hard time getting back to $80.00.  With the dollar firming even more, we see this one breaking even further. 

 Dow – Up 33 as I type this with 50 min. left on the day.  Quiet today as traders look to outside markets for direction.  Market still looks vulnerable but there is no sign of a major correction yet.  

 Cattle – An inside day today which makes yesterday’s low really important as support.  The trend still looks higher but we have some warning signals here of a possible change in direction.  It is just a warning.   

Monday October 26th -

Corn – Down 19 - We cautioned Friday that we could be turning lower with our indicators saying a top was likely to be occurring that morning.  We said on Friday that the market has setup a significant top and a move lower on the day Monday would confirm it but coming into today’s trade the weather picture seemed worse and the outside markets were once again poised to support the grains.    

After the Dow opened higher, and moved up over 100 points, the dollar opened lower and was on the verge of making new lows.  Just before the grains opened, crude oil was up over $1.00 and so everything pointed to some early strength in the corn.  It started higher by 2 cents but within 2 minutes we were down on the day and it never looked back as the dollar started to rally, crude oil broke, the Dow gave up all of its gains and corn broke to down 17 cents after 35 minutes of trading. 

This is no doubt the intermediate top we have been talking about for many days.  We were already 100% sold so we had nothing to do here but we were warning you that needed to make some final sales to make sure you had done that.  Corn could easily bounce 10 to 15 cents from some level on a dead cat bounce but I think new highs are pretty much out of the question until we have a good handle on the final production of corn for 2009.  Percent Bullish after climbing to over 82% is now at 65%.   We could easily sell off another 30 to 40 cents from here before finding a low.  We will have more tonight on our Monday Video Update.       

Wheat – Down 20 ½ as the market gave up on the rally in the dollar.  We sold all of our remaining wheat on Friday as we suggested in the market bulletin we sent out.  We now will wait for a good pull back to own longer term. 

Beans – Down 19 ½ as beans gave up with everything else.  While I can see a good break from here, this market is likely to have a much stronger balance sheet longer term and we will own a significant break. 

Rice – Down 2 in January as support seemed to be there all day with rain headed for the rice fields of Arkansas.  We will wait and see what progress was made last week in the harvest report this afternoon.  Remember, this market has broken 90 cents from its high less than 2 weeks ago so it did not have the overbought conditions of corn and wheat coming into today.  As a result it was not going to be affected nearly as much with the change in direction of the outside markets.  PB has dropped under 50% for January Rice so we can still have an orderly move lower near term.  Longer term I am bullish but near term looks lower but there will be bounces along the way.        

Cotton – Actually finishing up 3 points today in December with a lack of selling.  Today’s low is support near term. 

Natural Gas – We closed lower today than at any time since September 22^nd and for now we look to be headed back toward support at $5.00 in December Gas.  We want to own this break but it still looks like it could work lower for now. 

Crude Oil – We finished a volatile day down $1.77 and $2.80 off the high.  The dollar strength is the culprit here and if we see more strength in the greenback near term a test of $75.00 which is now support is likely.    

Dow – Down 104 with traders having ideas that the Health Care Bill has new legs today.  I doubt it does but who knows.  A correction in the market is way over due and a break to 9500 still looks possible near term.  We had a target of 10,150 and got pretty close but it still stands as a target unless we close under 9700. 

Cattle – We look to have a top here too after the break last Friday in the meat market as well.  Today was follow through even if it wasn’t that convincing. 

Friday October 23rd -

General Comment – Please excuse the shortness of this update but I will have more online tomorrow night including a Market Update Video.  It is very hard to communicate from down here because of my computer situation but for now suffice it to say, I did it to myself.   

Anyway, the market today reversed and has indeed setup a significant top given the technical action coming into the day.  Corn and wheat which both were over 80% in our Percent Bullish indicator as we have been pointing out, both finished lower after being sharply higher on the day.  We saw it coming and sent out a bulletin to you regarding the change.  We also sold wheat today getting to 100% sold.  We sold 20% as we went down on the day and another 20% on the close.  I sold 25% as a Spec a little higher.  In general, the risk is too great right now and we have ridden this bounce a long way and improved our final sales price.  We did not sell anything in Wheat for next year but we may do that early next week. 

Soybeans finished unchanged on short covering once the corn sold off.  Nothing to do here just yet as we are already sold. 

With all of these markets we need more proof it's the top which means the market lower coming in Sunday night and on into Monday.    

 Rice finished below support but off the lows.  This the lowest close since we tested the $14.29 level and this market is now setup to work lower as well.  Monday's crop progress report will be key.  

 The Dow was down 109 points after being up 150 yesterday.  The increased volaitlity is making it more likely that the outside markets may be ready to reverse which points the dollar higher and crude oil lower. 

 Again, more on this and a look at the rest of the markets Saturday Evening.

Announcement -   I will be speaking at a rice conference in El Salvador the next two days but should be able to keep you updated by email.  For Thursday, expect a morning email and then hopefully an aftermarket comment but it may be late.  Friday there will be a morning email only and then a Sunday night email update.  During this time, the website will not be updated except for the Audio update.  Everything will return to normal on Sunday so check for updates then. 

Thursday October 22nd -

 Corn – Back over $4.00 as the weather remains the main concern.  The dollar was a little higher while crude was able to close just a tad higher.  In general, rain makes grains but right now concern over harvest progress and field loss has the market still holding to its uptrend.  As we showed last night, we think we may be within 10 or so days of a significant top but it certainly has not happened so far and a move into the $4.15 to $4.25 level is possible.  Patience. 

 Wheat – Up 9 as the funds have a bottomless pit of buying for wheat right now.  We are looking to price the final 40% we still own and as the markte enters extreme overbought conditions the timing maybe right in ther next few days. 

 Beans – Down 3 and certainly the weak sister.  If we start to sell off hard here, the corn and wheat will be in trouble but for now it looks sideways just under resistance.  

 Rice – Down 6 but still over $13.52.  Watch it carefully tomorrow.  I can see it either way and for now I am just not trading it.  I would like to own it lower and think the odds are still in my favor but time is ticking on. 

 Cotton – Up 17 but still a follower. 

 Natural Gas – Down 13 to 17 today and my bias is still for a correction to own.  Nothing new here to report.

 Crude Oil – Down a little with the dollar up a tad.   This market could correct big if the dollar saw a strengthening move but the last of buying in the green back indicates to me we are going lower still.

 Dow – Up 150 on earnings.  We are going to show you some interesting things on the earnings here next week.  It could tell you if you should or shouldn't beleive everything you hear right now.

 Cattle – Up 32 watching everything else.  This one is just like cotton in that it is being led by outside markets.

Wednesday October 21st -

Corn – Over $4.00 for part of the day but a late selloff pushed the market down 7 off the highs but still 12 cents higher for the day.  The market was pushed by fund buying on a lower dollar and crude oil rising to almost 82 cents before backing off.  There is no sign of a top here but traders are advised to keep a close watch on the market the next two days.  A close back under $3.85 could signal a break toward $3.60.  A close over $4.00 and the $4.15 to $4.25 level looks to be in play.   

Wheat – A very strong day with wheat up 25 cents.  Buying from the lower dollar helped push the market into new highs for this move and put it into over bought conditions.  Remember, a market can stay in this situation for sometime but producers who need to sell should be watching very closely. 

Beans – Beans back over $10.00 as fears of a major commodity run grips all the grains.  Wet weather remains the topic of discussion allowing the market to run higher.  A move back under $9.90 would set a bearish tone while a move over $10.20 does exactly the opposite.  Even though I think we are running out of room and time here, the rally could last into next week.  

Rice – The market refused to close under $13.52 as we rallied today to $11.79 before trading back to $13.56 in the last minute and closed at 13.60 ½.    The market had a 14 cent range at the end.  If we trade back under $13.50 and a close occurs under $13.52 we could have a leg down develop.  It is a hard market to call when you are being pulled this hard in both directions.  The bottom line right now is that the outside markets must hold or the support levels are going to be taken out.  Longer term it still looks bullish.     

Cotton – We are higher here with the outside markets.  This is still a follower. 

Natural Gas – A reversal down in Nat Gas today as early gains were wiped out on a good break heading into tomorrow’s numbers.  We still see a selling opportunity right here but a buying possibility is coming.  

Crude Oil – The mart shot to 81.99 today before pulling back.  The dollar is still headed lower but my concern here is a surprised with the market at this level.  If there is any hint of intervention in the dollar by foreign banks we are going to reverse so fast it will be impossible to get out or get in.  Just keep a close watch here. 

Dow – Down 92 as banks sold off on ideas higher oil prices is going to affect their bottom line.  What can I say??  Why didn’t it affect their price last week?  We are in a place where profit taking is certainly possible and a move back under 10,000 is possible.  We have been looking for a high of 10,150 as resistance and today’s high was 10,119.  While there is no sign of a top here we are in a range where it could happen and especially if there is a strengthening of the green back.     

Cattle – A little type of reversal here too as we saw spill over selling from grains coming off highs at the close.  As we have been saying, this one is following. 

Tuesday October 20th -

Corn – After making new highs for this move overnight corn finished down 1 ¾ cents on the day which looking at reminds me of someone kissing their sister.  In other words, it doesn’t mean anything except for a few raise eyebrows.  I can draw no conclusion and will not call it a reversal at all.  Today’s low at $3.79 ½ is support and if that is taken out we should test $3.73.  The resistance move up to $3.89 ½ so let’s see which level is taken out first.

Wheat – Down ¼ and there is nothing to say here either.  We will give the market more room to tell us where it is headed next.

Beans – Down 13 ¾ as beans don’t like being over $12.00 for the time being.  That is resistance for now with support at $9.72.

Rice – Again, comments from last Thursday, “$13.52 is where we see support now so a close under that could setup a test of the $13.20 level…”  Today we sold off to below $13.52 but couldn’t close there so now we wait to see if we can get the selling to push us lower.  We will give it more room but the action today wasn’t pretty.

Cotton – After a key reversal down yesterday, cotton rallied back and so far has defended its bull market.  A move under $66.35 and the defense will have failed.

Natural Gas – OK…we talked about this in our morning comments today… “We remain right at the major resistance point and history says we are probably going to push up through it.  At issue is going to be the reaction of the market once new highs for this move are made.”  That is indeed the issue now.  If we sell back under $5.00 odds favor a correction. If the current buying holds then I would look for a move toward $5.50.  Even so, odds favor a break to own more gas over the next few weeks.

Crude Oil – Back under $80 but nothing has changed.  The weaker dollar looks to remain even weaker so Crude is still in a bull move with no sign of a top…YET!!!

Dow – Down 50 but holding well with earnings showing no sign of a change in trend for now.  I still see 10,150 as the next target.

Cattle – Cattle was higher today even with stocks down.  We are about to get a trend signal which would tell us cattle are in an uptrend.  Tomorrow will be interesting.

Monday October 19th - 

Corn – Weather concerns and a lower dollar once again brought out the buying by major funds.  That coupled with a lack of farmer selling took the market sharply higher today and near the recent high of $3.88.  We will be looking at crop progress tonight in the USDA report to see what percentage of the crop is harvested to see where we stand.  Remember $3.96 will close a gap made back on June 30^th and I think the high of that day which is at $4.01 is also possible on this move; however, there is going to come a day of reckoning.  While some of this crop is going to be late getting harvested, most of it will get put in the bins it’s only a question of when.

We are still in a zone which says it is safe to sell but we have no sell signals yet.  Be patient and for you, who need to buy, don’t even think about trying to take a shot at the short side first.  This kind of market can be totally irrational and it can stay that way longer that you can put money in the account.  Buyers should walk away from here and let the market finish the move.  I will have more tonight on our Video Update on the website. 

Wheat – Up 18 as the market follows the corn and beans higher.  With harvest done on the spring wheat we could see more short covering here than selling can stop the move higher.  Technically the charts show a move over $5.29 would propel us toward $5.50 and then $5.75.  PB (Percent Bullish, a mathematical formula for the bullish sentiment in the market) is at 75% so there is still more room to go higher before we enter an extreme overbought situation.  

Beans – The market was Up 20 today on short covering and fund buying across the board.  Weather concerns just as stated above in corn.  We are flirting with $10.00 again with $10.15 major resistance.  We have talked before about the $10.20 to $10.60 range as being a possible window target for this move.  We are approaching a safe selling zone for beans.   

Rice – On Thursday of last week we wrote that, “$13.52 is where we see support now so a close under that could setup a test of the $13.20 level… If we can move back over $14.00 I think odds are 65-35 that we see new highs here.”  The weather is clearing for Arkansas and it looks like they will get a good run but the market is still be influenced by the past weather as well as the concern for the grains.  Technically the market has room to roam higher with PB at 63% with overhead resistance at $14.14.  A move under $13.52 is going to look really bad but I don’t see it without a surprise or the outside markets reversing.       

Cotton – Cotton reversed today with almost a massive key reversal down.  PB has gone over 80% today just before the reversal just as we mentioned on Friday.  This means we are entering a safe-selling zone but again, I am not trading this market at all.  While the cotton yield is going to be lower because of damage in the delta, the supply is still high.  I am not ready to say this is the top because we need to see more confirmation but cotton producers need to be watching this one over the next few days. 

Natural Gas – Early cold weather and the fact that some of the nuclear plants are down for maintenance allowed Nat Gas to move higher on additional short covering.  While we could see more of a move near term, the market is up against some major fundamental resistance levels which we still see as reason to believe a lower move is probable before the end of the year.   We remain long ¼ of our gas needs here and looking for a good place to sell calls against that position now that our October Calls have expired.   

Crude Oil – Higher and approaching $80.  $85 is still a realistic target for later this year but a pull back on a world currency attempt to support the dollar could give us a nice break to own.  It may not happen for a while but it is probably coming. 

Dow – The Index is Up 106 as I type this and looks to hold solidly above the 10,000 level for now.  10,150 is our first target.   It could get there yet today!!!

Cattle – The cattle on Feed report was neutral to a little negative but the outside markets are up and that is where the market is looking for direction.  It should follow the market near term. 

Friday October 16th - 

Corn – A quiet trading day with the market ending down 1 ½ and waiting for more news.  We will go through the weekend watching harvest progress and looking for the USDA report Monday afternoon.  If you take away the concern around getting harvested and the fear of the dollar breaking even further near term, the market looks lower based on current corn fundamentals.  We will continue to monitor all conditions but a move down to $3.50 remains possible just as a move to $4.00 if the right set of circumstances occurs.            

Wheat – We finished Down 7 as we pulled back after the wild push higher this week.  It is still in follow mode and will need outside help to sustain any bounce.  If we are lower Monday we will sell the final batch of wheat.

Beans – The pull back here is a result of harvest pressure.  Longer term I want to own beans and like this break.  If you need or want to buy back some 2009 crop, get ready.   

Rice – We closed Down 14 and are now 65 cents off the high for the week.  Harvest progress in the delta states is going to be watched closely by the trade on Monday.  We have support at $13.52 and if that is taken out, we could correct back to $13.30.  Here too, the market fundamentals are bullish longer term but near term we have some problems.  I don’t know which ones are going to win but if we take out the harvest issues, the market looks weak to me.  Check the weekend video for more details.      

Cotton – We are continuing higher and I am now looking for a sell signal. PB is now at 79%.

Natural Gas – Strong move higher as colder weather forecasts catch come of the funds concerned for their longer term positions.  Based on what we saw today a couple of things to look for next week.  If we move over the recent high of $5.90 then look out for a move to $6.50.  While I still see a break before Christmas, the current rally has caught so many shorts off guard we could enter panic mode near term. 

Crude Oil – We are in a move higher that has $82 and the $85 as targets.  I don’t know if I trust them as great targets but the technical support looks good and the fundamentals are ok as well.  A break in the dollar this next week will add fuel to the blaze.    

Dow – After getting through 10,000 the market has pulled back a bit.  I don’t think the 10,000 level means anything but some will trade out of longs just to put the sell side of their trade in at above the 10,0000 level.  I still see us a little higher from here but we could have a correction anytime. 

Cattle – The cattle on feed report Friday was neutral.  I see it as a little bearish in the deferred months but this market is going to follow stocks near term. 

Thursday October 15th - 

Corn – Down 10 as the market correct from their sharply higher move over the last two weeks.  We did take some of the overbought conditions out of the corn today but we did not get sell signals.  We told you yesterday on the Video Update that we were getting warning signals of a possible correction but we were not going to sell on warnings.  We will show you the affect of the market action today later tonight on our Video Update.  Tomorrow will be interesting and could go either way. 

Wheat – Down 8 with not much to talk about in this technically led market.  We are looking at outside markets here for direction and I must admit, it doesn’t look all that bad tonight.  We may have just made an intermediate top but we have no sign that it has occurred.  We will give it more time.    

Beans – Down 11 and just like corn and wheat, there is no sign that this is nothing more than a correction.  It could change and become an intermediate top but for now we will give it room to prove its short term direction.  

Rice – We said last night we could trade under $13.90 in a correction…how about correcting to $13.60 which is what it did today.  The market rallied back to $13.79 ½ down 24 ½ at the close.  $13.52 is where we see support now so a close under that could setup a test of the $13.20 level.  WHAT A MARKET!!!   If we can move back over $14.00 I think odds are 65-35 that we see new highs here.  This market too is being influenced by outside fundamentals with the dollar looking like it could be ready to correct higher (read below under Crude Oil.)  We will talk about this one tonight on our Video as well.      

Cotton – Cotton is a follower but it is not following the grains.  Cotton finished unchanged which reflected the Dow which is up about 12 points as I type this.   I see nothing to do here.       

Natural Gas – We rallied back today after the report showed a lower injection than we have seen than before the summer.  There was still an injection and there is still plenty of Gas.  For now the market looks a little weaker but as I have been saying this break is a must to buy. 

Crude Oil – We shot to $77.97 a barrel today with news that inventories were lower than expected.  The dollar started higher and then sold off 1200 points against the Euro only to reverse back to near unchanged as the markets closed.  Today’s action in the dollar looks like a bottoming action for the green back.  We need to see some follow through higher tomorrow but the action and volatility is indicative of a low for the dollar and a high for the Euro.  If this starts to happen, we will see a snap back for the oil market.  If the dollar sells off more over the near term, the oil market will head toward $80.00.

Dow – What a quiet market.  As I type this the Dow is up 17 points and holding over 10,000.  Given the current action, it looks still higher to me but pull backs can still happen.  Earnings are coming in above expectations.  That should scare us to death that people are actually buying because the earnings are better than someone at a brokerage house put out on a screen…kind of what I’m doing right here. 

What I think doesn’t matter but what the market is saying technically does.  We have all indications in a zone which points higher.  PB, Trend Indicator, Moving Averages…all of them are saying no sign of a top.  The strength index of the trend says we need a little down time but that is still a buy until we get another reason to sell it.  Stay long but watch it closely.   

Cattle – Cattle unchanged which is where the Dow was when cattle closed.  Go figure…still following.

Wednesday October 14th - 

Corn – We finished up 1 cent today after making new highs for this move.  The bulls look like they are kids sticking their feet in the water wondering if the temperature is alright to go for a dip.  The bears tried to win the day but the selling dried up after we broke 9 cents from the high.  PB is up to 82% but as I have said, this could be the case for several days.  Support is at $3.45 on the long term charts and $3.70 on the short term system.  Until we get sell signals don’t even think about it.  Yes it could happen tomorrow but let’s let it happen first.  We may still be able to trade over $4.00 on this move.    

Wheat – Up 2 cents but it finished 16 cents off its high.  This trade is technical in nature with the basis still weaker.  Short covering continues but one has to wonder if we didn’t exhaust some of that today.  We will be patient a little longer before pulling the trigger on our last batch of wheat. 

Beans – After trading back over $10.08 the beans sold off and finished up just 1 cent at $9.94.  Some bears are screaming warning signal today and it could be but I have a rule to never trade warning signals.  Give it some time and see if the market has more selling in it tonight and tomorrow.      

Rice – November traded to $14.29 overnight but couldn’t print over that level.  We finished at $14.04 up 14 cents.  We may sell off a bit and then take another shot at the high.  The market is overbought and could correct to under $13.90 but because of the nature of the technical picture, we would give it a wide berth.  No reason to trade this from the short side at all right now.  Longer term we are bullish but harvest is still going to be a drag and while the world supply is going to be needed this year, the real push on prices is probably next year.  Note I said probably.  I have been late on this one.   

Cotton – Same as we have been saying.  Cotton is a follower for now. 

Natural Gas – Yesterday we said…”We have the first signs of a roll over for November Natural gas.  We would not sell the market here but would start to think about positioning ourselves to own more.”  We are lower today but I want to make sure I am clear.  I do not see a major leg down in Nat Gas.  I see a potential large buying opportunity.  We will give the market some room but I think we are headed to a level where we want to get some gas bought as far out as we possibly can. 

Crude Oil – $75.00 was no barrier for the market today as the Dow moved over 10,000 and the dollar fell more.   The weak dollar is now the main driving force of so many markets but crude is really connected.   The market looks like lower still as the congress has no idea of the long term affects they are allowing to occur.  Maybe I shouldn’t say “allowing.”  I doubt they have much choice but longer term I can see another shoe dropping and it will not be pleasant.    

Dow – The stock market roared over 10,000 with a little excitement on the floor and then proceeded to move on higher.  As I type this we are up 153 points on what maybe good earnings.  The environment is right for more gains in the stock market.  There is no way I’d be short here and I certainly am not.  In general, this rally is at the expenses of the economy and work force.  A lower dollar should bring the world to our door for products except they have the same dollar to buy it with.  Near term higher but longer term, the dark days of recession are still going to drop rain on us all.

Cattle – Higher with the stock market…this will continue for the most part. 

Tuesday October 13th - 

 Corn – We finished up ½ cent today in a back and forth consolidation day.  PB is still at 81% tonight but could go higher (see link below.)   The harvested corn progress is now at 11% which is the lowest I have seen.  Lower than the record of 13% in 1992.  The average for this time of year is 38% for the last 10 years.  In general, I would say the report was a non-event but the fear of more problems is not going to be a selling point that is for sure.  The crop condition was unchanged from last week so obviously we didn’t get any of the frost damage in this report. 

 Click here to see Video about Corn’s current PB rating…      

 Wheat – Up 18 cents on a non-fundamental led rally.  That means the buying is technical and there is nothing really bullish in the news except the funds want to own wheat.  Short covering continues today and with the technical action pointing higher, there is no reason to be on the sell side…just yet!!!

We want to use this rally to finish selling wheat.  Get ready.

 Beans – Down 7 as beans flirts with resistance at $10.00.  We pointed out last night the $10.20 to $10.60 range is going to be heavy resistance.  Harvest is 23% done as farmers shift from corn to beans.  This is the lowest level since 1990 so here too sellers have nothing to rave about.  The technical action was a non-event so if the funds still have an appetite for beans, we should work higher.   

 Rice – The rice harvested percentage is at 69% compared to an average of 87% and with Arkansas showing 60% complete compared to a 5 year average of 77%.  Mississippi made a 12% jump this past week to 53% with Missouri at 49%.  In general the market now has to look at conditions improving over the near term to let combines really roll through the delta until later next week.  Resistance holds at $14.00 up to $14.22.  Cash markets remain quiet for now but world events are getting more and more press these days.  This could change the cash market as well.    

 Cotton – Same as we have been saying.  Cotton is a follower for now. 

 Natural Gas – We have the first signs of a roll over for November Natural gas.  We would not sell the market here but would start to think about positioning ourselves to own more.  We are short Nat Gas calls and they look to expire worthless so we have lowered our purchase price by the amount we sold them for.  Now we will sell more calls but further out of the money as the risk is growing for a longer term firming of Nat Gas Prices.  Bottom line:  do not be short as the risk is to the sellers in the long term.   

Crude Oil – $75.00 is resistance and with the dollar looking weaker it could be taken out.  The dollar is still the key and while we are making new lows since August of 2008 one has to wonder what happens if the Fed starts to hint at inflation being a problem.  If we saw even a ¼ pt increase in interest rates…the dollar is going to rally big time, Gold will see sellers like we haven’t seen in a long time and Dow is going to see a large break.  What are the odds of a ¼ point rate hike?  Not any right now but remember, it only takes a threat from the Fed and then we could see the fortunes of many traders change in a heartbeat. 

Dow – The stock market was down 15 with nothing to hang for the bulls and bears as earnings start to come in.  

Cattle – Holding back over 84.  Nothing new here either as all eyes are on other markets for now. 

Monday October 12th - 

 Corn – Up 18 cents as cold temps plunge into the western Corn Belt.  Couple that with the funds still in “inflation” mode and the grains all shot higher today with no sellers in sight.  For now we are in the bull camp but we have warning signals as we discuss tonight in our Video Update.  For now I see the market approaching $4.00 which will be pretty tough resistance because of farmer selling.  Also, we need for the news in the crop progress report to be bullish tomorrow as well.     

Wheat – Up 26…It was a very strong day here as well and we see no reason to be selling here either. The market is being drug along by outside markets.  If they top, wheat will break as well but for now we may be able to get our final sales down on this rally. 

 Beans – Up 35…The report on Friday was bullish and we still are looking at tight supplies near term.  The questions will be final yield for beans later this year and we will not know for months.  Harvest is ahead and we could see some weakness there but near term we can see the market in the range of $10.20 to $10.60 for November beans. 

 Rice – Up 40…More rain tomorrow and then a slow drying period for rice but for now the market is concerned about supply and quality along with the world demand picking up as India and the Philippines are going to be pressed to make sure they have enough supplies.  This could put support under the world market price.  Right now, there appears to be little demand as cash prices have stalled.  Good weather appears right around the corner for Arkansas and it will be interesting to see what sunshine does to the buying based on the wet weather there.  For now, we are in the bull camp with a careful eye on a place to sell.  

 Cotton – No way cotton can pull back with all the commodity buying going on.  It is a follower and when the other grains produce a sell signal, we will get one here as well.   

 Natural Gas – Cold weather burns gas and so the market is looking at an increase in demand.  IT would be nice to see the injection levels drop a little this week.  For now we remain long the market but with covered calls. 

 Crude Oil – Inflation and a lower dollar keeps pushing us back toward major resistance.  Can we get through it this time at $75.00???  Your guess is as good as mine but technically if we do, we could head toward $85.00 and remember, input costs for next year are going to be going up too. 

 Dow – Extremely quiet day with the market up 21 points on low volume.  It had better get through 10,000 this week.  

 Cattle – Same comments as cotton.  With a general commodity buying spree underway, there is no chance to break cattle. 

Friday October 9th - 

Corn – The USDA report was neutral this morning with weather the main feature right after the open.  The market rallied and made new highs for this move trading to $3.73 only to sink and close down 1 3/4 cents on the day.  Technically this looks like a classic topping formation as we “spiked” the market (I will show you that in the Video Update later tonight on the site.)  Couple that with the failure of the market to continue higher after a new high, sets us up for a lower move next week; however, if there is more damage reported than the thinking there is right now, we could push right back up.  I think odds are 65% we just topped this move.   

Wheat – The report was bearish wheat but wheat is not going to break a whole lot without pulling corn down.  I am now bearish the wheat/corn spread believing we could go to 80 or less on that spread. 

Beans – This is the one I thought was bullish.  The opening calls were lower for beans and I couldn’t see why except for the world numbers which showed a large increase in world supplies.  While this is bearish, the carryover number of 230 million bushels is low enough to keep pressure on the market until this crop is almost in the bins.  We were 30 cents higher today and we may see even more increases until we price in the report. 

Rice – The USDA report was bearish in my opinion but with rain all over Arkansas and the rice crop still standing in mud in the field, no one wanted to push on the market enough to break it really hard.  We finished down 8 cents after making new highs for the move today.  Yes this is a hook reversal down.  All eyes will follow the weather next week to see how much rice farmers can get out of the field.  Weather forecasts continue to show scattered rain all next week.  A move under $13.20 says this bounce is over. 

Cotton – The report meant nothing to cotton and we are back to letting outside markets push this one around.  Not trading it.

Natural Gas – We have been warning of a possible correction near term in Gas but not wanting to trade it from the short side.  We showed today where the market looks to be a zone for selling not buying and we are looking for a correction to find support.  I am long 25% of our long term base but short calls against that and so far that is working great after taking off half of our original position.  Those options expire next week.  We are positioned for a market that will be longer term higher, short term lower.   

Crude Oil – A little higher today with the dollar sharply higher.  The Wall Street Journal had a story on the weak dollar and sure enough, it was the kiss of death for the bear market.  Well, at least for this week.  The buck may make a rebound short term but longer term we are bearish the dollar.        

Dow – The index is up 50 as I type this as more general inflows of by funds into the market keeps the buying coming.  The market is long in the tooth and struggling but it still could make new highs.   

Cattle – Holding back over 84.  Remember cattle makes “V” bottoms all the time and we could be seeing that if the market runs higher early next week. 

Thursday October 8th - 

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Corn - We are set for tomorrow’s USDA report but while that would normally be the big and only news in the market there are two other factors affecting the price action. 

1)      The weather forecast still shows major frost conditions for the Northwest Corn belt the next three days.  When we couple that with rain and very heavy rain at that, traders are reluctant to do any selling until they see the affects of the weather.  

2)      The US dollar is falling and it has gotten close to panic selling as gold makes new high and crude oil moves higher with it.  The Dow is also moving higher as traders see a lower dollar as bullish for the stock market.  That is not normal but what is normal these days. 

Couple all these things together and we are in for a volatile ride over the next few days.  Resistance is at $3.70 and support is at $3.53.  Longer term we are bullish but right here we are in a green light selling zone if you need to do any selling.

Wheat – We are very close to major buy signals here as the market flirted with the 9 week moving average.  The last time the price closed over that average was June 12^th.  We are still in the red zone for selling and the market looks poised to run toward a selling opportunity.  The wheat corn spread is back to $1.10 after trading down to 90 cents which was our target.  Even so with no buy signal and with the corn so crazy, I cannot trade the spread yet.  The report tomorrow will address world supply and that may still be very burdensome. 

Beans – Here too we are in the red zone with the market saying no selling should be happening right now.  If anything we should start looking to own beans in the future but we need a little more time to confirm a low here.  Given the current dollar situation this market can ignore fundamentals and rally sharply.  The next few days are going to tell us a lot about the near term future of soybeans.  We sold everything over $10.00 and so I am not too anxious to run back here and own beans until we see a better buy signal. 

Rice – Last night we said this…”I am out of all shorts and looking at a couple of technical indicators which point to a rally into the $13.50 to $13.60 range.”  They were right…Today’s high was $13.59 as rice exploded through stops before profit taking took us back to $13.48 with a close at $13.50.  Here too this market is in the red zone for selling and could rally toward $14.00 if the rest of the grains can move higher as well and the weather and S&D report are not too bearish.  We could re-enter shorts really fast but for now, let’s see where this leads. 

Cash remains slow with no real bids and the export number this morning was weak.  The action here is all technical and fear in economic markets and has little to do with rice Supply and Demand.  Tomorrow’s report may do nothing to change things.    

Cotton – After closing below the 9 week moving average, cotton has come right back up through buy points and looks to firming up.  This is due to technical trading and outside markets pushing the whole commodities boat higher.  Let’s just hope we are not headed into iceberg infested waters. 

Natural Gas – We had another higher day even after a build in inventory higher than expected.  My comments are the same as last night….  “Boy this is a tough one right now.  Volatility is falling...The trend index shows no trend.  PB is in a bullish setup but we are seeing the indicators turn to green for the seller right here.  Not going to go too far out on the limb.  Looks to be weaker over the next two weeks but I wouldn't trade it short.  I don't think you should buy here either.” 

Crude Oil – Crude is following the plight of the dollar which is now at the mercy of foreign central banks.  We are still seeing the dollar weaker based on a raise in interest rates in Australia which means a flow of currency from the US Dollar to the Aussie Dollar.  There is some talk that the European Central Bank will do the same.  This will keep the pressure on our Dollar because we cannot raise rates without putting the recovery at risk.  Thus the stock market keeps heading higher on ideas of cash flowing to equities.        

Dow – We were up 61 today.  Read Crude comments above as it explains the current rally environment.

Cattle – Higher with everything else.  The rising tide will raise all boats and cattle are certainly following everything else right now. 

Wednesday October 7th -    Make sure you verify email address to receive emailed newsletters

Corn -  The market paused today as we await the USDA numbers Friday morning.  Make sure you register for the PFM Webinar Friday Morning. 

I have nothing else to day but corn needs bullish news to go higher.  We could get that Friday morning or over the weekend and until we get past the next 5 days or so, I expect the volatility to come and go and the market to jump.  A move under $3.53 could spark some good selling but I don't see what is going to do that tomorrow.  Resistance is in the $3.65 to $3.70 range.

Wheat –  We crossed the 21 day moving average and have our sites set on $4.83 as resistance.  This market has been in a death spiral since June and while I don't see a big rally, the market looks to be ready to go test resistance. 

Beans –  Beans can't break until we get past this report and weekend.  If the report is bearish, the selling could be tempered by the weather but beans don't seem to be in the path of frost as much as corn.  A move back under $9.00 is going to signal for more selling pressure. 

Rice –  I am out of all shorts and looking at a couple of technical indicators which point to a rally into the $13.50 to $13.60 range.  It was announced today we got no Iraqi business but there is a long way to go and I still think we will get about 300,000.  Vietnam is underselling us right now but there is more concern of rice damage in Arkansas and this is keeping prices supported.  We could re-enter shorts here really fast but for now, I think we might bounce.   

Cotton - We are higher again today and if the Dow can move higher we could rally here to 65 cents to test the recent highs. 

Natural Gas - Boy this is a tough one right now.  Volatility is falling...The trend index shows no trend.  PB is in a bullish setup but we are seeing the indicators turn to green for the seller right here.  Not going to go too far out on the limb.  Looks to be weaker over the next two weeks but I wouldn't trade it short.  I don't think you should buy here either. 

Crude Oil - Last night I said a move "... back under $70 is also very possible."  Today's inventory report showed a cut in crude oil but a rise in Gasoline Stocks.   The market fell under 70.00 but closed right at that mark.  This back and forth action is going to continue as the Stocks gyrate.   

Dow - Down 5...  Nothing to say.  I don't like so much about this economic picture but the money flows are still going to equities.  Mine isn't but someone's is.  There is so much wrong here and so little right one has to wonder when the other shoe will drop.  It could be several weeks or even months but there are some real problems that must be dealt with.  Be very careful here and try stay in cash or appreciable assets...not stocks. 

Cattle – Today's action was supportive.  If we can hold today's low for the next couple of days...we will have an intermediate low. 

Tuesday October 6th -    Make sure you verify email address to receive emailed newsletters

Corn -  Up 17 and off highs by 11 cents as corn exploded off the start on ideas of huge demand, lower yields and more cold weather coming.  There was a lot of short covering today but the funds were net buyers adding 17,000 contracts to their long position.  This could put them close to 140,000 contracts long.  At 7 PM corn is 2 cents higher after starting lower in the night session.  $3.53 is support near term and $3.40 is longer term major support.  $3.70 is resistance with $3.85 major resistance overhead.     

Will the market hold at these levels?  The answer comes by looking at the carryover number.  If we are looking at 1.65 billion then the market is probably looking at a good range.  If we are looking at 1.4 billion we could rally to $4.00 before this weather situation plays out.  If the USDA does not change demand and raises the yield to 166 bushels per acre...we are looking at 2 billion plus and while I don't think that is the number, anything over 1.8 billion will probably push corn below $3.40 to even testing lows.  I believe the market is probably ok where it is tonight given the possible reductions in supply mentioned above but I think this is one the edge of the best case scenario.  Buy the rumor sell the fact remains a real possibility.       

Wheat –  The spread traded down to 92 cents before reversing.  No...I didn't buy it.  For now we are remaining on the sidelines here watching the action.  If I'm going to be wrong I want to be wrong out of the market. 

Beans –  While the beans worked 22 higher today at one time they were over 35 higher in the midst of the panic buying.  This market looks very suspect to a sell off after this weekend passes and we see what really happens with the weather.  The market is 2 higher here tonight.  

Rice –  Up 2 cents as rice sits and watches the fireworks.  No interest in the funds to own this one and the harvest appears to be slowed down again by weather.  Why we are not moving higher has to be a concern for the bulls.  For me I have lowered my short position at this price level because we are at support.  On a rally, I will have to reconsider establishing short positions. 

Cotton - This market advanced on the dollar weakness and the Dow surging.  It is a follower for sure so be careful. 

Natural Gas - I said this morning I was going to take off some longs and I did but I am still long the market here.  I just wanted to take some profits.  Look for Nat Gas to continue to be volatile as the whole market tries to figure the next major move of the financial markets and energy. 

Crude Oil - Higher with the Dow but this rings hallow.  For now I can see us back to $73 but a move back under $70 is also very possible. 

Dow - Up 130 as the market looks at a weak dollar and rallies.  For now there is just too much money trying to move into the system and with the economic woes on main street looking to worsen...this is going to be bad is we move under 9200. 

Cattle – Still lower...nothing else to say about it.

Monday October 5th -    Make sure you verify email address to receive emailed newsletters

Corn -  Sharply higher today as worries about wet weather and frost drove the shorts out of the market.  We were 17 higher at one time but pulled back to finish up 8.  Today's high and low are now significant price points.  After the close the USDA  said 57% of the corn in the US is mature which puts it well beyond frost damage and then they also said 95% of the corn is dented.  A frost will reduce weight but a major decline in the US yield is not that likely.  Even so here tonight in the early trade corn is up 2 cents.  All eyes will be on the weather forecast and then this Friday's USDA report.     

Wheat –  Still in a down trend.  The market is actually picking up steam as it works lower.  The spread is down to $1.00 between Dec  wheat and corn.  For now we are prepared to let the market show us when there is going to be a good time to own this spread. but it's not yet. 

Beans –  Beans rallied back toward $9.00 but failed to keep going.  There is a lot of talk that farmers are harvesting beans first over corn.  That is putting pressure on the nearby cash market and keeping beans under more pressure than corn.  As the harvest picks up, we will see more pressure here and we could even drop toward that $8.50 level over the next couple of weeks; however, there is going to be a lot of volatility until we get a better handle on both the corn and bean yields.   

Rice –  Market finished higher but there was a lot of selling today at the $13.13 level and I don't know how they did it but it showed as a 1 lot for sale there all day.  Every time someone bought the market it that 1 contract for sale just kept showing back up.  At the end, 184 contracts traded at $13.13 so all I can say is that the selling there is very strong.  My bias remains to the downside near term.  Dang I hope I'm wrong!!!

Cotton - Holding at 61 cents and looking at major support.  We are having a hard time going under the 9 week moving average so the market may pause here. 

Natural Gas - Another higher day as the shorts just keep on buying Nat Gas.  We are still long and short some calls which now are approaching the in-the-money condition.  We are going to hold all positions for now. 

Crude Oil - This market was sharply lower earlier in the day but came roaring back at the end of the session when the Dow wouldn't break.  Its sideways for now. 

Dow - Sharply higher as the Dow will not break very far before the money on the sidelines starts flowing back in.  Earnings are dead ahead and it will be interesting to see if they aren't a little lackluster compared to the second quarter. 

Cattle – Last Thursday we warned of a worsening technical picture on cattle and that the market looks to break toward 81 cents.  That appears to be the best summation for the current run.  We may want to own cattle in the near future.  PB is now at 21%. 

Friday October 2nd -    Make sure you verify email address to receive emailed newsletters

Corn -  The break in beans today is going to work against corn.  The odds of a bounce to $3.55 are dropping and if corn moves under $3.30 we will have pretty strong sell signals.  We are 100% sold and short some calls to boot to try and add a little to our sales position.  They have good profits in them so hold them for now.  Longer term we look to own a significant break here especially as we head into the end of the year.  

 Wheat –  Still in a down trend and looking like it can go lower.  If corn falls under $3.30 I think we could get a bounce in the wheat/corn spread but for now it still looks like wheat needs to compete for feed value and that looks to be the 90 cent level depending on the basis.  It could be lower as we have seen that spread near 45 cents but I don't see it this time.  We will own the spread at some point but it's not now.    

Beans –  The break under $9.00 sets the stage for a move to the $8.30 to $8.50 level.  I said last night I don't see a major break occurring and I don't.  A 5 to 7% break is not a major break.   A major break would be over 25% and I don't see that happening.  The supply of beans is going to be better in the year ahead after this harvest but it still is going to be tight.  We may want to own some out of the money calls or what we all leverage calls at some point.  More about that in the weeks ahead.  We are 100% sold and looking to own this next break into November. 

Rice –  Down 20 today and closing well under $13.20.  Last night I bought in some shorts at $13.20 only to put them right back on today at $13.12 to $13.15 when the market couldn't rally.  I will have 100% of my short position on if $13.08 is taken out next week and especially if we move under $13.00.  The Iraq Tender looks to be small this go around and there is no interest in the cash market.  The combines have rolled hard in Arkansas and we are still hearing of good yields with some quality issues but all in all not enough damage to spur the market higher.  Our bias remains to the short side and a move to $12.70 is looking more and more likely.      

Cotton - Under $61 and still looking weak.  Not trading it and as we said earlier this week...$58 looks like a good target. 

Natural Gas - Higher today after the big increase yesterday.  We like owning here and are long UNG and futures and short Calls against the longs.  I see this market as sideways and still trying to define its range. 

Crude Oil - Lower but the market is sideways.  Maybe selling some 65 puts and 75 calls makes sense.  I'm not ready to do it but it sure would have worked the last 4 weeks.   

Dow - Down 21 today after the poor economic data and jobs report.  We want to buy a break here and like many people...are hoping for one this month. 

Cattle – Last night I pointed out that the "indicators are turning much more bearish."  We sold off again today and have tested the 84 zone in December and inn fact closed on it.  Current indications point to 81 cents in December.  That seems extreme given the current data but maybe its a better target than I thought.   We are in the bear camp here but not enough to risk hedges.   Cash cattle prices are holding so we like being long cash if you can own them in the field.      

Thursday October 1st -    Make sure you verify email address to receive emailed newsletters

Corn -  Mild weather and a lack of bullish news sent corn lower today but 4 cents.  Support remains at $3.30 for Dec which is 1 cent lower here in the night session at 8 PM.  Weather concerns will switch from too cold to too wet but that is probably not enough to give the futures much of a bounce.  We still could rally near term but the market will have good selling at $3.55 to $3.60.

 Wheat –  Down 5 today with the trend still down.  New lows are very possible and if corn starts to move lower, wheat will work lower with it. 

Beans –  The market was lower again today bit over support at $9.00.  Near term weather is the key factor but even long-term we see a tightness of supply keeping a a major break from occurring.    

Rice –  The market broke under $13.20 today but there was no selling and the market bounced back to $13.30.  A close under $13.20 will setup a test of $13.00.  Next weeks crop progress report will be key but we know there has been some progress this week.  Scattered showers have moved into the area today but more clear weather for three days is ahead for that area.  We still remain on the bear side of the market waiting for more news.  Tow issues to keep watch on.  A super Typhoon is headed for the Philippines and that could destroy more rice.  Also the tender for Iraq is ahead even though Viet Nam is now saying they will bid on the Iraqi Tenders.  My problem is still the large supply on the USDA balance sheets and without something to lower those supplies, we could see more downside action in the weeks ahead. 

Cotton - A lot of back and forth but right now the short term trend is down and the market looks to be weaker. 

Natural Gas - Sharply lower on more gas going into storage.  No change on our part as we are looking for support and it could come from $4.80 level in the Dec contract. 

 Crude Oil - Once again all over the place.  The market appears sideways and waiting on more economic data. 

Dow - As we said last night the recent volatility made this market look like a top.  We were down 206 points today and now we wait to see if the market breaks down and sets up a major correction in the Month of October. 

Cattle – We are headed for support at 84 but the indicators are turning much more bearish.  We do not have a trend here as far as the indicators go but the chart has a down trend underway from the high in July.  Let's see how the test of the 84 support zone goes.