What we wrote back in April of 2010...

The narrative goes backwards with the latest date first.  You can scroll to the bottom of the comments if you want to read them in order of occurrence.  

Thursday April 29th

Dollar -   With the Greece bond situation easing, the dollar is lower today but one has to wonder if this is just another “hope” resolution and that there is not more trouble ahead.     

 Corn – A sharply higher move this morning failed to hold for the day and the market settled up 4 cents but well off the highs.  We showed you on the video last night why we see the market as sideways for now but I will emphasize again that this crop has a long way to go and I expect at least one good weather scare.  With the additional news that China is buying more there is going to be a strong demand table so this crop has got to be good. 

Wheat – A strong day today as July crossed back over $5.00.  The market is still in Monday’s range but has come back up to the top of the sideways range and maybe we still could push it over $5.25.  The main thing here is that the funds are short and do not want to be and they are going to push the market higher than it should be before it’s all said and done. 

Beans – July soybeans remain below $10.00 and look set to check support again which sits 20 cents lower.  If we can close over $10.03 tomorrow, then we could be set to test the upside resistance at $10.25 but technically, the market is sideways for now.  Here too, a weather scare will send the market sharply higher.      

Rice – A massive key reversal up today with a 23 cent gain after making a new low for this move.  We wrote this morning that the large export and sales numbers should act as support.  The funny thing is that it didn’t and the market opened lower.  Even so, the market selling of the past few days wasn’t strong and the buyers weren’t coming for it either until the May-July contract as a spread traded about 2000 contracts. 

That’s right…over 2,000 contracts traded today between 25 and 26 ½ cents on the May-July spread.  It was as if a major short in the market couldn’t find the buyers to roll their short to until the prospect of deliveries tomorrow brought the buyers to the table.  Where the Mar-May spread traded out to 35 cents as January went into delivery, the May-July spread traded into the 23 cent level at one point today.   

I don’t know this for sure but I have seen it happen before where a large spread trader cannot roll their position.  If they were short the May they needed to sell the July and buy the May to roll their position.  If the other side of the trade will not offer the size to let them move almost 2000 contracts, then they have no choice but to try and leg it.  In this case they would sell the July first and then buy the May.  As they do that they drive the market lower since they will go with the trend and sell first and buy later (my assumption.)  That could explain some of the pressure in the market the last three weeks.  The end result today is that when the spread finally traded at the large volume, there was no selling in the July as there had been and the market bounced back.

I am just speculating but when I saw the large number on the spread trade, you could feel the market start to shift.  The last minute saw a 15 cent range in the July contract/ as we traded from $12.45 to $12.60 in the last 60 seconds.  We will talk more about that tonight. 

 Cotton – Yesterday we said “…we are moving into the short term bear camp after today.  Look for a solid break.  We will buy it but for now…We are out.”   The market finished down 162 points today and is approaching support.  We will give it some time and room but we still want to own it and while I am out, I am not short. 

Natural Gas – $3.00 gas anyone!!!!   The market dropped 36 cents today as the inventory report still shows more gas flowing into storage and more hedge pressure is likely.  The one thing to remember tonight is the fact we are still in the sideways range and have not made a new low…yet!!!  We could tomorrow. 

 Crude Oil – Concern is growing that the oil spill in the Gulf is now going to slow down delivery of crude oil by ships as the coastline is threatened with a massive oil slick.  I am more worried about a dollar weakening driving prices higher but then what do I know?  I still see the market sideways with 88 as overhead resistance. 

 Dow – The idea Greece is going to be ok for awhile (a few days at least) gave the bulls the nerve to step back in long today driving the market higher.  The 122 point gain puts us back in a range near resistance.   

 Cattle – A close under $93.15 will flip the technical’s to the defensive and while I may like this market longer term, near term we could see some back and forth trade.  We cannot move under the 9 week moving average and so there is a mixed technical trade right now and that usually means consolidation.          

Wednesday April 28th

Dollar -   The continued fear of a credit default by Greece has the Euro selling off and the dollar on the rise again today.  The action in currencies had little effect on the grains today.   

 Corn – The July futures snapped back today and have left what appears to be a bear trap.  The market rallied up 11 cents today with shorts taking profits after we failed to work lower on the day.  Export sales tomorrow are expected to be large and that too could have given us support.

Wheat – The market remains on edge from Monday’s massive reversal and range.  The futures ended down 3 cents today and still look weak near term.  It will take some help from outside markets to turn the tide here.

Beans – The selling pressure slowed today but the market only was able to bounce 1 cent.  There is some concern that the recent shortage of beans is starting to be less of a factor..

Rice – OUCH!!!  It was more downside action today as the market falls 24 cents and makes new lows.  This is lowest that the front month has been in over 4 years.  We have a loose downside target of $11.88 to $11.80 for May so while there are things which could be bullish out there, technically it looks lower still..   

 Cotton – Down 40 today and we are moving into the short term bear camp after today.  Look for a solid break.  We will buy it but for now…We are out.

Natural Gas – Nothing new here as the market remains sideways waiting for something to move it out of this sideways range.   

 Crude Oil – Every time we drop under $82 we bounce and that happened again today with a move back over $83.00.  It is still sideways for now.

 Dow – The market bounced back today after the 200 point break yesterday.  Even so, this rally may not last.  We would buy a break but think we could get a little bigger one. 

 Cattle – The damage is done here.  An intermediate top is in place.        

Tuesday April 27th –

Dollar -   The dollar exploded to new highs as grading agencies downgraded Greece’s bonds along with Portugal.  Greece bonds are now considered Junk and that has the Euro under big pressure.  The Euro fell to $1.314 today and could be ready to trade under $1.30.   This action is bearish grains near term.  It is also bearish crude oil which is what we will watch for support in the grain market.              

Corn – The recent lows were taken out today in the July contract setting up another push lower in corn.  May did NOT make a new low which is interesting.  If it holds those lows for the rest of the week, then the push in July could be a bear trap; however, the market is set for July to test the May support zone after May goes into deliveries.  Again, the bias is sideways to down but the risk to lower levels we think is 20 cents if we make and hold new lows the next few days.   

Wheat – A complete inside day today with some short covering.  Yesterday’s 40 cent range has the technical picture extremely messed up so we will say the market looks bearish but could rally 10 cents and still look that way.  A close over $5.00 would set the bears back. 

Beans – TREND ENDING DAY!!!   The trend indicator turned down today as beans gave up 16 cents.  The 9 week moving average is at $9.70 tonight or 20 cents lower than the close so we have that as a cushion.  Based on the chart, longs should be liquidated on a lower close tomorrow.  Even so, I can’t short it until we get a better sell signal.    

Rice – Down 21 cents today as the market continues its long liquidation in a bearish fundamental picture.  The good news is that we have not made a new low yet but the bad news is we are just 14 cents away and the market still looks weak in all categories.  A move under $12.43 in the July sets us up for move to possibly $12.10 down to $12.00.  We have made are argument for the bear case and while I am still in that camp, at $12.00 in July I will not be as bearish.  We may have too much rice at $12.45 but I’m not sure we have too much at $12.00.     

Cotton – The market fell to its upward trend line today so we are at support.  A push under $84.30 sets us up for a test of the major trend at $82.00.    

Natural Gas – A very quiet day given everything else going on.  There is nothing to do here as it is sideways.

Crude Oil – Here we go again as the market falls through $82 but closes just over that level in the June.  Heating oil is still holding very well so I’m not sure crude is going a lot lower.  $80 could be tested if the dollar continues to strengthen tomorrow.            

Dow – The market closed down 213 points today as Wall Street was the “Bad Dog” today on Capitol Hill. 

I traveled to San Antonito and back today and listened to the whole hearing on Goldman Sachs and I will tell you, I am buy that stock as soon as I get a signal because those guys know what they are doing.  Meanwhile the senate doesn’t have a clue.  Someone should tell the Senator from Arkansas it is better to be silent and let everyone think you are a fool then to speak and remove the doubt.  The same goes for John Mc Cain.  What they know about trading can be put on the head of a very small pin!!!

Cattle – OH MY GOSH!!!   We got to within 10 points of the high today but then the market collapsed as the Dow cratered.  We finished down 200 points as the market put in a range of 253 points.

OK…remember we told you we thought the market had made a massive top and we had gotten out of longs…we were right!!!  A major collapse today but we could trade within the 250 point range for several days.      

Monday April 26th - 

Dollar -   The action here still looks to be sideways for the moment and so it should have little effect on the Ag markets.

Corn – A lower close today after trading higher early on ideas that the funds need to get longer in the grains to balance portfolio investments.  With the wheat sharply lower today and the USDA saying the crop is 17 points ahead of the fastest planting rate in the last 10 years, the market is going to struggle until there is rally some threat to the 2010 crop.  Another test of the lows is not out of the question. 

Wheat – We did not want to see this happen today as wheat made a massive key reversal down.  We talked about selling 20% as we entered the sell zone but the market didn't give us a chance.  We need to see how the action is after this break but the damage on the charts is really bad. 

Beans - The uptrend remains in beans but can beans go it alone without corn and wheat helping?  Certainly it can!!!  But just because it can doesn’t mean it will.  Even so, for now the trend remains higher until it's not. 

Rice – A higher close but off the highs by 14 cents.  We still see this one as sideways for now.  Planting progress is now at 69% compared to a five year average of 50% so here too we are way ahead of schedule.  We are hoping for one more run higher here and if we get it, we will be on the sell side for sure.        

Cotton – After closing over $86 last Friday we didn't hold that level today and sold off.  Planting progress is about average for the US but Texas is at 15% and its average is 20%.  It is too early to get much help from that but with a wet forecast for the northern Texas area we think we could see some support.  

Natural Gas - Mainly unchanged today and still sideways.

Crude Oil – June crude could test $82 again as the market waits for more news.  Technically it is still sideways for now. 

Dow – No change for the Dow today as the market deals with regulation laws and earnings.  

Cattle – The bullish report on Friday held the cattle market higher today and once again has us setup to test the highs.  A move under last Friday's close at 94.75 in June is going to bring in massive long liquidation and is a sell signal. 

Friday April 23rd –

Dollar -   After opening and running higher, the dollar closed lower and back inside the sideways trend of the last 4 weeks.       

Corn – The market gave back all the gains since Monday’s collapse and finished just above support.  This market is marking time sideways waiting for more crop news.  We except Monday’s planting report to show the crop almost 50% in the ground.  At the same time things will slow down as rain is expected over the next two weeks.   Technically the market is sideways.

Wheat – The recent uptrend was not affected by the 7 cent break today.  While we can see the market staying firm a little longer it will take more bullish news to push toward the $5.30 level in July.    The Del Model is close to a sell zone but could stay there for many days.  Watch this one closely in the days ahead.        

Beans – May closed over $10.00 yesterday but today the market couldn’t hold above that key level and closed down 6 cents.  Never the less the uptrend continues for now.   

Rice – After 9 days of consecutive lower closes, rice closed higher today by a whole 6 cents.  We think the market is vulnerable longer term to a move lower but near term needs to consolidate and that would mean a sideways market.  July could rally back toward $13.00 while support looks to be at $12.50 near term. 

Cotton – A good close today has the market ready to assault even higher levels.  The next target is 88 cents in the July.  

Natural Gas – Another nice close today has us wondering if we are not on the verge of some short covering.  The problem remains the amount of gas pouring into the system that needs to be hedged.   A close over $4.50 in the July sets up a move to $4.80 and possible $5.00.

Crude Oil – June crude closed just over $85 which is level the market seems to be spinning around for now.   The market has mixed technical’s which has wondering which way the market is apt to move.  For now, 82 is support and 88 is resistance.        

Dow – We finished up 70 points today as we churn higher.  We see nothing to stop this move.  A correction would be welcomed but the market has no reason to sell off right now.  11,500 now becomes the target with the higher close today. 

Cattle – Today’s action included a massive key reversal down but the cattle-on-feed report which came out this after-noon is considered supportive.  A lower close on Monday signals a test of support and a possible double top on the charts.   

Thursday April 22nd - 

Dollar -   This market shot higher today but is still below recent highs.  The bond trading in Greece is not going well and some hedgers are placing bets by buying the dollar.  The market still looks sideways but that could change at any moment. 

Corn – We closed right against resistance once again which is at $3.63 in the May and $3.75 in the July.  If we clear those levels in the next few days, we could put on another 20 cents really fast.  The market is looking at a good start to the season but we are not even half way planted so there is a long way to go.  We are not looking to sell here but in the wheat…that is a different story.          

Wheat – A push well over the 50 day moving average was the main feature of the market today.  Once again the funds are shorts here and they are covering as the technical buying has produced an uptrend.  Tomorrow we should enter the sell zone on the Del-Model and that usually means it is a good place to start doing some selling.  We would like to see the market put in some technical reversal first but at point of the season, we will go ahead and get our feet wet by doing some risk management.  We will probably get to 20% sold as soon as we have established the indicator in the sell zone.  Then we will wait for a technical reversal to add to sales and if we start to reverse the Del-Model and move lower toward the buy zone, we will sell even more. 

The wheat/corn spread has widened out to the highest level since January.  The buying action in the wheat has not been seen in the corn yet but shorts in the spread are liquidating too.  We are looking to sell the spread at some point and we will let you know when we do.  Let's hope it's a lot higher when we do.    

Beans - May beans closed over $10.00 and look to keep moving higher as the uptrend is firmly in place.  There is a sell coming here but we are very comfortable with nothing sold at this point and the weather and time working in our favor.  

Rice – Today was the 9th day in a row that we have closed lower.  We are right on support and while the market may be able to test the lows which are 20 cents lower, we think this run is about done.  There is little business out there as the sales number showed this morning.  It appears that buyers are holding supplies or are determined to buy hand to mouth in the weeks ahead.  This is the wrong time of year to do any heavy selling as we can see one more push higher later in the spring.  World markets by the way are not helping us at this time as they continue to weaken.    

Cotton – There is nothing different to say then we did last night.  I thought the market was going to move right back higher as we started the day but the market sold off and gave us another spike on the charts which is bearish.  There is some good news though; the market today closed the gap it made after the India Export Ban was announced.  That can be bullish especially if the market rallies sharply tomorrow.  .  

Natural Gas - A nice pop higher today as the inventory report was not considered bearish and shorts covered for other reasons as well.  It still looks sideways for now.  

Crude Oil – We said last night that June could test 82 cents and we today we broke under 82 cents for a few minutes before rallying almost all the way back.  Today's action is supportive and the break did exactly what we needed to balance the indicators.  So for now, we see the market sideways. 

Dow – The Index finished up 9 points today but that was 118 points off its low.  This market does not want to go down and that usually means, look for it to go higher before going lower. 

Cattle – The action in cattle today is bullish.  After starting sharply lower, cattle came back and closed higher.  I will wait it out but the technical action and the charts are softening up the idea that a top has formed.  Notice I said "softening up" the idea.  Next two trading days are really important for the market.                                   

Wednesday April 21st - 

Dollar -   Quietly higher today as not much was made of the movement for the buck.  Near term it looks sideways. 

Corn – The market kept on its rally hat today as corn finishes 4 cents higher which was 3 cents off its high.  The market may need some threat to this crop to move above the $3.65 level in the May.  Technically it looks sideways for now.   

Wheat – We scratched out a gain here but the longer term aspects are not that rosy.  Funds have chosen not to push the downside of the market near term but $5.00 is May is going to act as resistance.  We are looking for a place to see in the near term.                                              

Beans – The uptrend in beans is now evident as the market moved up 11 cents today.  $10.00 did act as resistance today but the market looks to be able to clear that hurdle in the days ahead.  This is going to be a timing type of top and not a price objective. 

Rice – Another lower close but just barely as it was the 8th down in a row for rice.  We still think the $12.40 level will act as support but now with the July taking over in the active department, I can see the July at some point work down into the May price range.  Tomorrow should be higher based on the technical action today as we closed near unchanged after spending almost all day lower.  That sets up a spike low in the short term so now we look to see where the market is going to find resistance over head.   

Cotton – We found resistance today at $86.80 in the July.  We will see how the market handles the setback from there in the chart today.  Still, buyers are looking for breaks to own it so we may not see much of a break here.  As always, we will be looking for something that doesn't fit here in price action.  A break back under 84.00 cents could indicate yet another trap in the market.  At this point I am long the market looking for higher but will be watching it very close the next few days we test the breakout.  

Natural Gas - Still quiet as we go into the report tomorrow.  I still see it sideways for now. 

Crude Oil – The market close down 40 cents but the market still had some movement with the inventory report today being mainly neutral.  June could test $82.00 near term. 

Dow – The market is scared to go up and scared to go down.  It was a quiet close today with nothing to really get excited about. 

Cattle – June broke out of a coil formation which now gives us the chance to test the recent high.  We have believed that a major top was made but the action today puts that idea in jeopardy.  We will wait to see if the market can make and then hold new highs.  The chart action today is supportive but there need to be follow through.                               

Tuesday April 20th - 

Dollar -   A very quiet day for the dollar as the market participants backed away from taking positions given the current news. 

Corn – After yesterday's sharp decline, the market took back half of what it lost yesterday.  The market has little weather premium in it at this price and is vulnerable to a sharp rally if things turn problematic for 2010 crop.  Demand looks to stay strong so selling may not be enough to push us much lower until after this crop size is better known.    

Wheat – With the funds heavily short wheat, once this ship gets going, it just stays in the direction for the day.  Today that was up.  We still see this market as a follower and once we get a little further into May, we are going to start see some hedge pressure but near tern we could move either direction and violently at that.                                             

Beans – The funds are still buying beans as they keep positions in a market that cannot afford any problems.  Sellers are just not plentiful yet but longer term this market could see some real problems.  It will become a weather market over the next 4 weeks.   

Rice – Today was the seventh day in a row where rice closed lower.  We have now taken back almost a dollar from the highs of two weeks ago.  While we are still in the bear camp we acknowledge there could be some up swings over the next couple of months.  We will use rallies in the new crop to get some sales on.     

Cotton – Can you say "Cotton was Limit Up?"  Well yes we can say it but for it to be true and say it is another story.  It has been a while but today the cotton exploded higher finishing limit up.  We are right against resistance but my guess is we will take it out as India is putting a ban on exporting cotton.  July made new contract highs today as it cleared $84.25.  If we clear the recent highs of $84.60 in the May we will re-establish our upside target of 95 cents for the July contract. 

Natural Gas - We finished a little higher today but this market is very quiet and waiting for more news. 

Crude Oil – We gained $1.00 today as the market watched a quiet stock market and some other commodities rally a bit.  In general there is no new news here and with the report tomorrow maybe showing a gain in inventory levels, we may see a little more downward bias near term. 

Dow – The market is slowing down but plowing ahead.  11,200 is our next target.  We remain long the DIA's and short calls.  

Cattle – We could be entering a sideways formation here but all the indicators are still showing an uptrend with a possible top in place.  In other words it has stopped going up for now but has not turned to go down.                           

Monday April 19th –

Dollar -   We finished higher today but near the lows as the dollar sold off when the stock market started to rally.  In general this market is sideways for now as it tries to determine the extent of the problems in the Euro Zone with a volcano and sovereign debt.  In the mean time commodities are all tied to the crude market which took a hit today.   

Corn – A 16 cent loser today as corn broke under the weight of the crude oil sell off and perfect planting weather in the Mid-west.  We are all the way back down to major support and unless there is a risk to the crop the market is telling us it needs to go lower.  For now we see the market sideways waiting on news.  

Wheat – The corn selloff inspired spread traders to take it out on wheat and down it came.  We lost 22 cents in the wheat market today which is almost 5%.  We are still following here.  Where the corn and beans go…wheat is going to follow.      

Beans – The beans were only down 8 cents as the funds beloved market held up despite the carnage in the corn.  If the funds ever turn on this market it is not going to be pretty but for now there are enough shortages out there to keep the beans in the current range and near recent highs. 

Rice – We have turned the charts negative today with a break under the 21 day average and finishing at $12.62 in the May.  The spread remains at 28 cents which is interesting.  That is more supportive than many would have expected this late in the spreading game.

I am out of this market completely but lean to the bear side longer term.  Near term anything can happen but we are going to need to move a lot of rice in the next few weeks to build and hold the bull argument.  Today’s high is now resistance which is at $12.92 and a move under $12.47 could start a downtrend for the old crop market. 

Cotton – This market is holding on to more of a sideways tilt which is bullish longer term.  A close over 82 in the May would re-establish an uptrend.  A move under 78 sets up a $4.00 break. 

Natural Gas – We closed under $4.00 here as the market felt the pain of the rest of the commodity markets.  Technically we remain sideways for now. 

Crude Oil – May crude goes off the board tomorrow so we will switch to June.  It is trading $1.50 higher than May which is subject to start with.  Look for the June to pull back into the closing range of the May over the next week.  If the airline industry starts flying again in Europe we could see more of a rally here but for now we have certainly increased supplies.      

Dow – The Goldman Sachs issue is not going away anytime soon but news today that the SEC doesn’t have that strong of case sent the Dow higher late in the day.  I can still see more of a break but am not declined to do anything right here but watch and let the bigger boys play.  I am still long the DIA and short calls. 

Cattle – A pretty quiet day in cattle with the August down about 12 points.  This market is in a bullish setup with a warning of a possible top forming.  A close over 94 in the August will destroy the top formation.  If that happens, we need to watch out for the bulltrap. 

Friday April 16th –

Dollar -   Higher today as the dollar continues to go hold over support at 80.000.  There is concern longer term that the Greece situation is going to have more problems and that may keep the dollar supported for now.  

Corn – May finished higher for the close but the last minute saw a 4 cent swing.  Volume was light on the day as the market waits for news regarding supplies and weather the next few weeks.  Buying a corn spread is not a bad way to go here right now.  The July $3.70 - $4.30 is what we are looking to do right now.  I also may buy futures and sell a covered call but am not so sure about that just yet.     

Wheat – A strong move might today which was considered by most to be entirely technical in nature.  The spread is out to $1.26 with corn and could move out to $1.35 to $1.40 but we think this bounce is about to run its course and as such we begin to look for a reason to be doing some selling.  So far we don’t have any technical reason to be on the short side.  

Beans – We finished above recent resistance in the beans today and look to be breaking out to the upside.  We need more buying on Monday but the action shows a lack of willing sellers and the shorts I the market are headed to the exits for now.  This could mean corn is about to move higher as well.  Next week will be interesting. 

Rice – A close under support has the chart in May rice turning negative but I need to emphasis the turning part.  We do not have technical indicators turning bearish.  They continue to just say we have stopped going down.   I can see the market in either direction but feel it is going to need some demand to surface to move the market substantially higher.  We have a long growing season ahead of us and our forecaster is showing some wet weather ahead for the delta.  That could allow for some short covering and push toward $13.50 in July.  Without some help, a move under $12.75 will start to turn the technical indicators lower and could re-establish a downward shift.   

Cotton – What a market.  May finished 100 points off the lows but still 49 points lower on the day.  The market is showing some signs of support here and could stay sideways a while longer.  We are bullish longer term but near term the verdict is still out. 

Natural Gas – The selloff yesterday had no follow through.  The market remains sideways. 

Crude Oil – May broke under 83 today as the Dow pushed lower.  If the stock market breaks further next week we could see move downside action   

Dow – We warned you two days ago that the technical action was in line with a correction for the Dow.  Of course we didn’t know about Goldman Sachs but the conditions were ripe for a correction and we got one today.  The only questions how much of one.  We are thinking about 3 to 5% which would be 300 to 500 points.  It may not be that severe but we would allow the market to trade a while on Monday and if we can make a new low then we could see the levels we are looking for.    

Cattle – We rallied back today closing once again over the 21 day average.  It’s the nine week average we are really watching and the market has not traded to that level yet.  92.50 is the support line on Monday.       

Thursday April 15th –

Dollar -   Not much happening here.  The dollar was a little higher but is still in the bear side of the technical charts and indicators. 

Corn – The market was higher today on more short covering as it gained 5 cents.  The bears have to be disappointed as this market moves higher against a back drop of huge supplies near term.  That can change if supply is threatened but we are several weeks from getting to a major weather care time period.      

Wheat – Nothing new here as wheat follows corn around for now. 

Beans – Another up day here as the market rallies on short covering and ideas that China is going to buy beans from somewhere.  Sellers are not real aggressive and may not be able to get that way until the 2010 crop is well down the road and that is…well down the road.  Time is on the bull’s side here but a time is coming when a major bear market could develop.  As I said, that is months away.         

Rice – Of all the agricultural markets, rice was the only one down on the day today.  The market closed right on the support at $12.90.  Today’s low was $12.80 but the market bounce off of that level so we now know where the near term support is.  The export sales number was pretty good today but the market didn’t seem to get too much out of that. 

Cotton – A nice move higher after testing the bear trap we made last week.  This is starting to look much better technically but we will let it develop a little more.  $81.50 is resistance and $78.90 is support.   

Natural Gas – We are right back up to the record inventory for this time of year after this morning’s gas report.  The market is at best sideways for right now. 

Crude Oil – A close back over $85.00 but the market was entirely within yesterday’s range.  We will let it trade but believe the market is going to stick around $85 for now.   

Dow – We hit the $111.40 level today in the Diamonds (DIA which is the Dow ETF.)  We could push another 100 to 200 points higher here but timing is the important thing.  A correction in the market should be bought as we see it right now.  

Cattle – After two closes below the 21 day moving average, the Ju8ne contract moved back into the bull side of the indicators and rejected the short signal at $92.80.  We would watch it tomorrow for more follow through buying.     

Wednesday April 14th –

Dollar -   A weaker day but with little volatility as the market opened lower and pretty much set stagnant the rest of the day.  If we can work lower, the grains and rice will benefit. 

Corn – The market finished up 5 ½ cents today after trading up over 10 cents at one time.  The high of $3.63 was obtained just after the market ran stops at $3.59.  We sold off but then later tried to move the market even higher but it failed and pulled back.  The short covering in corn can continue but there is going to be some selling to work through until we get into a weather market.  Today is only a taste of what could happen if we start to get a good scare going.    

Wheat – This market is going to need a major boost from outside markets to move higher.  Wheat was down most of the day even with corn higher.  Look for that spread to narrow. 

Beans – Te market closed close to unchanged and well off highs.  The market is against overhead resistance and maybe it can get through it.  This is not the time of year to be a heavy seller but we could see some volatility in this market over the next several weeks and right now, I would not want to be very short.  Longer term I do think that is the way to be.       

Rice – This market has pulled back the last few days after the run-up last week.  We remain very concerned about the export numbers and tomorrow’s report will be watched closely to see if we are getting more sales on the books and how much is getting shipped out.  We have started a major project that we will be showing you in the weeks ahead.  It will go back a few years and bring forward the sales information for the last quarter of the year and what is normal for this period.  

Technically the market looks to be against resistance for now.  A move back under $12.88 will setup a test of support at lower levels.  There is still a chance for a move back higher but it may take some bullish news to pull that off.    

Cotton – The bear trap idea may be in trouble here.  The market has closed right on support at $79.30 (this was the last trade.)  We will be watching this one closely as a move back under 78.90 would set us back up to test the downside of the market.   

Natural Gas – We are holding over $4.18 and while I don’t see a major move higher, we could see a drift higher near term as we head into the preparation time for the summer and Hurricane season concerns grow.  Early forecasts are not good for the season as a warm Atlantic and La Nina could mean some big storms.   I see the selling slowing down below $4.00 until we have a better handle on things.     

Crude Oil – We closed back over $85 today as the market likes the economic outlook.  That should fuel demand (sorry for the pun) and keep the market firm. 

Dow – OK…watch out here.  This is exactly what we have been talking about as we have a strong push higher to finish this move.  We are long the Dow and short Calls.  We have a hard target at 111.40 for the DIA stock which is just 8 cents away tonight.  All in all, we may have brought in the shoe clerk today and a correction is right around the corner.  (The shoe clerk is from an old story which says when the shoe clerk buys stock…it’s time to sell yours!!!)

Cattle – We are back under $93.30.  April had a big day down today losing over 125 points.  All signs point lower right now.   

Tuesday April 13th – Sorry this is late but I became a Great Uncle for the second time today.   Welcome to the world Jake!!!

Dollar -   The dollar was higher but did not move back over the 9 week moving average and the chart remains a little bearish right now. 

Corn – The market finished higher today on good short covering.  There is a long way to go before this crop is made and some of the shorts got a little nervous today after testing support.  We will show this to you later tonight. 

Wheat – We were up 5 cents here as wheat continues a short covering rally as well.  We don’t think this market is going anywhere but a rally with the corn and beans is not out of the question.  It should be sold for sure.    

Beans – Nothing new…still sideways even with the 8 cent gain today.  A weaker dollar and some weather concerns could break us out of this sideways situation.   

Rice – The market has run into some resistance here at this level.  The early break to $12.93 this morning found no additional sellers so we would have to say that is near term support.  Overall we don’t see the market going anywhere until we get some more news.  This situation could last two days or 28 days so keep up with the market near term. 

Cotton – I like the action today as we popped over the 9 week moving average and back into the sideways range.  Now this looks like a bear trap so the next few days is going to be very important.  A move under today’s low will set the stage for a break to 74 cents but if we can move on higher from here we could once again challenge the high at 83 cents. 

Natural Gas – We rejected the support zone under $4.00 once again today and rallied 15 cents.  The chart is still looking like a bottom has formed but the volatility is going to make a long position a hard one to hold on to.  A close over $4.20 should bring in more short covering.    

Crude Oil – This market broke early this morning but couldn’t find enough sellers to stem the tide in outside markets and we turned to rally back over $84.  The dollar is key for this market and if we see another push lower there we could move this one sharply higher. 

Dow – We are still grinding higher as we finished up 13 with more action supporting the current levels,

Cattle – The market closed just under $93.40 but we need follow through selling to the downside to confirm a possible down leg in the cattle. 

Monday April 12th – 

Dollar -   The dollar got popped pretty good today as the Greek Debt issue may have found a solution for now.  It’s too early to know if this solves the problem and propels the dollar lower but a close under 80 will probably seal the deal for more of a correction on the dollar. 

Corn – The market finished higher today with the dollar selling off but the action doesn’t look that strong.  For now it is very simple, it will take the weather putting the crop into some kind of a problem to move the price higher. 

Wheat – The supply here is just too much and I see wheat heading back down to near $1.00 on corn wheat spread.  

Beans – We are sideways here and look to remain there until some news can shake from the sideways range.  There is nothing we see right now to do that. 

Rice – The technical picture remains good right now but there are a lot of things that can go wrong with this market rally.  We showed you last night that the carryover number the USDA has right now will need solid sales to make it the rest of the way and then we also need to ship the rice.  Last year this time there was 14 million cwts on the books but only 7 was shipped. 

I see the big crop down the road as a huge negative and while we could rally toward $14.00 with little problem, nothing has changed our opinion that this rally needs to be sold and the new crop will be no exception.  Let me repeat, I see one good push here and we need to be looking to sell it.  

Cotton – The action today was negative as the market gave up early gains.  We still see the market moving down toward $74 near term.  $76.60 is support tomorrow but let’s hope it doesn’t trade that low. 

Natural Gas – We are back under $4.00 but it is here the market dries up on the selling side.  Supply questions will not get answered for a while so the market looks to be sideways for now. 

Crude Oil – Today saw another close under $84.00 on the day.  We would like to see a break back under $80 and this time we will start talking about hedging Heating Oil (Diesel)

Dow – Not very pretty here today but at least we closed a little higher.  We have the market setup to test support which is 50 points lower tomorrow.  It is possible we are putting in a top.

Cattle – A close under 93.40 sets this one up to make a major correction.  Not sure this can happen without the Dow in more trouble but we are starting to see that as a possibility.                     

Friday April 9th – 

Dollar -   The dollar sold off big today maybe setting up for a more sideways action.  That could be helpful to the commodities. 

Corn – The Supply and demand report hit the carryover number pretty much as expected but the government raised world supplies and the market sold off 2 ½ cents.  Market direction is still going to be impacted by the S&D report that comes out in May and the weather over the next 4 to 6 weeks and then into the summer.     

Wheat – Even with a cut in carryover this market pushed lower today as corn and beans found good selling near the opening highs.  We are going to follow around for a while.     

Beans – The carryover wasn’t as big as expected but would supplies were increase.  Beans rallied on the news but sold off mid-day as the weight of huge supplies longer term kept the bulls in check. 

Rice – The USDA did it again.  They cut the inventory from 22.3 million down to 15.8 in the April USDA report and the market responded with a 19 cent gain but finished 25 off its high.  The number was in the market as we told you last night.  Expectations were between 14 and 21 million cwts so the wide expectations may have indicated that some of this was already in the market.

It’s time for us to do some major homework here and we will over the next couple of days.  I also should remind you I am a technician by nature which means I think the fundamentals are something you should know but not base all of your trading on.  With that said, I need to do some work on the fundamentals and plug them in to the action in the market.  For now, the technicals look good but the market is not in a confirmed up trend.  At $13.50 that will change.      

Cotton – The market tried to rally after the USDA report but it just couldn’t hold on and more long liquidation entered the market as we went down on the day.  It looks like 74 cents will be tested. 

Natural Gas – Higher as the selling just fried up once again.  We think the odds are rising that a major low is being put in here.   

Crude Oil – We closed just under $85 and so next week will be important.  Today was a massive Key Reversal down so today’s high and low become significant for early next week.  

Dow – We touched the 11,000 level today and with no major selloff.  I think one good spike up is coming and it will be an exhaustive move.  We remain long the Dow and short calls. 

Cattle – Lower feed costs still have some support in this market.  94.50 is resistance and 93.40 is support.                     

Thursday April 6th – 

Just a reminder…. Tomorrow’s Webinar at 8:30 will be an Abbreviated Presentation and should not last more than 20 min.  We know there is work to be done in the field so we will not have a full webinar.  We will have a full one in May when the first Supply and Demand numbers are issued for 2010-2011.

Dollar -   Moving higher on more Greek debt woes.  Things do not look good for the Euro and that will support the dollar over the next several months. 

Corn – All we gained yesterday we gave back today.  The idea is that China will not buy that much corn.  I sure don’t know but the technical action is once again bearish and it will take a good number tomorrow to change that.    

Wheat – Still well off the lows but we see it going nowhere without a major change to supply. 

Beans – Still sideways as we go into tomorrow’s numbers. 

Rice – The USDA tomorrow will probably cut the carryover but ideas of what kind of a cut vary.  We see the number between 19.3 and 21.3 for the long grain.  Based on current export numbers this is certainly defendable.  One thing for sure, this number doesn’t have to the the final.  We found that out last year after the USDFA raised the carryover 7 million cwts from the April 2009 S&D report to Augusts’ report.   

Cotton – Support gave way today as cotton fell over 200 points.  As I wrote Tuesday, I am not trading here but am waiting for a good reason to own it.  If we get a bearish report tomorrow or for whatever reason we move lower tomorrow, then we have a possible target of 74 cents in the May on this break.  The trade expects the carryover to drop to 3.05 million bales and it may be hard to get it that low.     

The one thing to remember about cotton is that it has wide swings and can create pain for traders.  The recent technical action as we showed last night was just too much today for buyers but tomorrow we could see it reverse right back up.  I am glad I’m not in here and for now I am staying out.

Natural Gas – More downside action today as the inventory report showed nothing to get excited about.  I still think it is going to b after April 30^th before this market settles down and we get a better idea of direction.  Even so, we see the risk as having grown for anyone needing to own Nat Gas but we will not add anymore and I do not recommend this for Speculators at all. 

Crude Oil – After moving back under $85 the shorts decided to take some money off the table and we saw a round of short covering.  For now we are out here too believing we will probably get another chance to own Diesel at better prices.  We would buy had to mouth for now. 

Dow – The action today finished with a 30 point gain which is a little reversal.  I think this market needs a blow off kind of top so for now, look for it to grind higher until we see the shorts cover all at once.         

Cattle – There was no follow through to the downside today s this market has not given up yet on testing the highs.   94.50 is resistance in the June with 93.77 and then 93.40 as support.  That is a tight range so I would expect one of them to be taken out pretty soon.  The market need to close beyond those trading range points.                    

Wednesday April 7th - 

Dollar -   This was one of those days where the dollar didn't affect much of anything as everything else moved around a sideways trade.  This will not be the case for very long but the dollar was a little higher today.

Corn – Whoa buddy!!!  Ideas that China might be in to buy a large volume of corn sent the market sharply higher (up 10 cents) on short covering.  Today's volume was quite large which helps say that the action was significant. 

Rumors are circulating that China wants to buy 2 million metric tons of corn.  That is 78 million bushels which if not included in the USDA numbers would drop the carryover a nice chunk all by itself.  It is interesting that they are rumored to buy US Ag products just before talking to our Treasury Secretary about revaluing their Yuan which would make our corn less expensive.  What gives???  We need to see more buying tomorrow to make any changes here but the action today was enough to signal the end of the bear leg we have been in the last three weeks.  

Wheat – Today's action was more short covering (up 11) as no one wants to be on the sell side of commodities right now.  I think that is smart; however, that opinion will not hold in wheat for very long and we will use a good bounce to get some production sold.                                          

Beans – There wasn't much price movement today (up 8) but there was a lot of volume here today as some trader's unwound long beans and short corn or wheat trades.   The spreading activity will not last too long but could impact the market if the corn continues to work higher.   

Rice – A finish just under unchanged (down 1/2 cent) after being 20 higher may signal a pause in the move higher for rice.  There are a lot of things being talked about including bad weather in Vietnam, China and elsewhere but the weather is about to change in those areas as the wet season starts.  What we need is a strong demand picture and that is going to need to come from the USDA on Friday or tomorrow morning's export report. 

There is still no trend established here and if the USDA doesn't lower the carryover substantially in the report on Friday, we may just settle right back down to the lows.  On the other hand, if they cut carryover by more than 3 million cwts we could have a breakout move pointing to much higher prices. 

This report is a crap shoot and I wouldn't bet much on it in either direction.  I may trade it quickly right after the open but for me, I'll go though the report with no positions.  

Cotton – The 83 cent level is where we talked about the market finding major resistance and right now it looks to be too much as the market moved lower today on long liquidation.  The charts look a little sideways and if that is the case then the 79 cent level needs to hold the market on a break.  The USDA report could have a lot to say about direction on Friday.   

Natural Gas - Lower today with the energy market working back lower.  Today confirms yesterday's high as major resistance to a move higher.  We could test the lows but I think sellers may have a hard time getting a lot of speculator support in trying to make new lows. 

Crude Oil – We are not big bulls here but think $90 is still possible.  Today the market broke $1.20 and finished back under $86.00.  $85 has been pretty good resistance and now it becomes support.  A move under there could give us a nice break to buy some Diesel.         

Dow – The market finished down 72 today and looking a little weaker in the chart formations.  11,000 is turning out to be good resistance but odds still favor taking it out as things look tonight.  That is subject to change. 

Cattle – I am not sure what today was.  While we finished higher we were well off the highs and the action actually shows a spike but not a true reversal.  $93.40 needs to hold on a test at lower levels.                         

Tuesday April 6th - 

Dollar -   More concern about the Euro debt situation led to a strong market today.  The dollar is still above support zones and is in a bullish setup.  This would be bearish the grains.

Corn – Not much action today as we close up just ¾’s of a cent.  In general we see the market sideways into the report this Friday and then the market will start to deal with weather concerns but it could be later this month before it really starts to happen. 

Wheat – This market short higher today on heavy short covering.  Sometimes a market just has to go higher and today wheat was that type of market.  Nothing has changed fundamentally but shorts in the market wanted out and found no one to take their place.  This will be interesting as today’s action stops the May wheat down trend that has been in control.  We will show you this one tonight.     

Beans – Nothing new as the market remains sideways and waiting for more news. 

Rice – A move through resistance setoff buy stops and the market soared higher today trading over $13.00.  The idea is simple here.  The market is looking at the stocks report and looking at last year’s numbers and is coming to grips with a smaller carryover than the last USDA report.  The question is how much of a lower number. 

Some argue that last year the USDA put the carryover at 13 million cwt in April of ’09 after the stocks showed 64 million in storage.  This year there was 65 million on the March report so why not a carryover of 14 million cwt in this Friday’s report?  While it is possible it is not likely that the cuts will be that deep.  After all, the USDA spent the rest of the year raising the carryover to 20 million cwts.

What we see is an additional 1 million cwts being cut from last month’s report dropping the carryover to 21.3 million cwts for long grain with a possible 3 million cut down to 19.3.  In other words, a range from 19.3 to 21.3; however, in order to get the lower number the USDA will need to recognize the additional sales we have and assume that they will not be carried over into the new crop year. 

In any event, this has the market firm right now for old crop while 2.5 million acres going in the ground has new crop on the defensive.  Technically, resistance is now at $13.40 with support at $12.80 for the May with just two trading days until Christmas…I mean the USDA report!!!     

Cotton – The action here is not all that good as cotton put in a spike after moving over resistance at 83 cents and then selling off to close unchanged.  As I said, it will take a firm close over 83 to turn this market toward the recent highs but the action today puts that in doubt.  I remain out of the futures but still in the bullish camp longer term.     

Natural Gas – After moving over the 21 day moving average, Nat Gas broke back and put in a hook reversal down.  Now we look for any follow through to the downside.  Remember, the US Energy Department is changing how they figure production but not until April30th.  A lot can happen here.    

Crude Oil – We moved over 87 dollars today but couldn’t hold it and sold back off.  We still se some profit taking and are not that excited about the economic expansion near term.  Longer term yes and when it happens, Crude will not be the only think moving sharply higher as interest rates will explode higher at the same time. 

Dow – Here we were down 4 points as the market moves sideways but with a drift toward higher prices.      

Cattle – The market worked lower early this morning but rallied mid-day and finished with an outside day higher.  The low at 93.42 was right on the 21 day moving average which we talked about last night.  The market could not get down through the support and rocked higher on short covering.  Remember, reversal action occurs at tops and bottoms and a reversal up will sometimes be followed by an immediate reversal back down.  We will be watching this closely tonight and tomorrow.  If it is higher early and then starts to go down on the day, odds favor more downside action.                  

Monday April 5th - 

Dollar -   The market set quietly sideways to a little lower today.  Not too much to push us one way or the other.  The US Ten-year bond rates were over 4% for the first time in a while and that could help support the dollar a little.   

Corn – We were lower most of the day but the market rallied at the end as crude oil started pushing back higher.  We are still in the same camp…near term we see it sideways to lower but when longer term supplies are in doubt; we could see a nice little pop here.  That may be 6 top 8 weeks away.    

Wheat – This market is still in follow mode but may have its moments.  We finished 7 off the low today as the market came back on the close.  Too much supply here will cap any rallies for now until that supply has some problems.                                        

Beans – Here too we are in a situation where rallies are going to be capped especially if the carryover is raised on this Friday's report.  Up until then we may be sideways as traders remain cautious going into the report. 

Rice – One month ago we were talking about $12.80 being support…now we are talking about it being resistance.  Today's move of up 22 cents is a good sign and proves we have indeed had a bear trap for now.  Ideas of more business than was accounted for in the last USDA report also has the market working higher with a focus on a lower USDA carryover number Friday morning.  $12.87 is resistance near term for old crop.  New crop is another story as it was down 5 cents in November as bull spreading is in full swing.   The crop acreage for 2010 is very large and if we don't see some movement away from that many acres planted to rice, the selling of November is going to remain a feature.    

Cotton – The finish today was up 71 points with the market over $1.20 higher at one time.   $83.00 is the resistance we have been talking about and today's high was 82.72.  We will be looking to see if the cotton market can push higher again on Tuesday to test that level more fully.  

Natural Gas - The Department of Energy has announced that they are re-calculating the supply of Natural Gas and will use a new formula for their report on April 30th.  They have pretty much said that they are overstating the supply.  This coupled with our technical action last week confirms a low in Nat Gas.  We have bought some more Nat Gas for our long term irrigation customers as the risk has now shifted to higher prices especially with higher crude levels as well.  

Crude Oil – Ideas that the US economy is heating up and some losses in production and supply in the short run thanks to an overseas explosion and Semolina pirates, has the market working sharply higher today.  We showed you the breakout on the video last night and while we are up against resistance, we can see the market adjust for a couple of days and then push toward $90.00.  We thought that would happen today but with the news of supply issues, the market pushed on higher.  For now, we will see the action near term.      

Dow – Quietly moving higher and pressing on towards 11,000.  We own the Diamonds with covered calls (110's for May) but I may want to do some more protecting the position in the days ahead.   On other words, once we have attained 11,000 we look for the market struggle and the risk to the downside to grow enough to warrant protection. 

Cattle – Another day higher as we finished up 70 points but that was 60 points off the high.  This could be a warning shot that the bounce following the major high at $96.30 is ending.  $93.50 is now support and if that level gives way, the market may signal the major top is complete and we have some real risk in the market.  I do want to say that this seems a little strange unless the Dow is getting ready to put in a major top as well.   

Friday - April 2nd ---  Good Friday Holiday

Thursday April 1st - Written Friday Morning

Dollar -   The dollar sold off again and is against major support.  I expect it to hold and the market to move back higher once again. 

Corn – There was not a lot of follow through to the downside here after the report reaction yesterday but there wasn’t a sustainable rally either.  Near term we see the market moving a little lower followed in a couple of weeks by a weather market starting and concern for the supplies of corn in the years ahead.  The risk longer term is in being sold so we look for a rally into the summer to sell. 

Wheat – Today was a dead cat bounce in wheat as it tries and handle all the carryover.  It will take a threat of supply to somewhere in the world to move this market higher.  It is the blight on all grain commodities right now. 

Beans – We were within yesterday’s range all day as the market absorbs the USDA stocks report.  We still see the market as moving below the March lows at 9.21 but here too the risk in the market is very short term.  The next 3 to 4 weeks and then the risk changes over to the upside as the weather market develops for 2010.    

Rice – A little higher here as the market bounces back from the big break in prices.  While we didn’t see the stocks report as that bad, the acreage report means that the long-long term risk has grown.  We will use a bounce later this spring as an opportunity to do some selling if the acreage numbers hold. 

Cotton – A strong finish for cotton has back ready to re-own this market.  A move over 83.00 could set us up for a nice advance here. 

Natural Gas – We have a bottom indicator in the Nat Gas contracts and while we may not run straight up, the move to the downside has ended for now.  We will be watching this very closely but those needing long protection over the next 60 days should get in on now. 

Crude Oil – A close over $85 has May Crude at its highest price of the year.  While the trend indicators are pointing to the start of an uptrend they are not yet at a level sustainable so another pull back is possible near term. 

Dow – The index finished up 70 points yesterday but the job’s report this morning wasn’t that bullish so we could see some pull back ahead.  It is that time of year when taxes can play on investment ideas but it is also a time where more IRA accounts get funds.  Near term we could still inch a little higher but we see a nice correction coming in the next few months.     

Cattle – The market has one eye on grain prices and one eye on equities.  It is still bouncing back after a major top and this rally will not probably last that long.