Monday June 30th -

Corn -  Limit down....Please read our comments below for last Thursday.  We said then that we were concerned that a hard break was about to happen and if this report wasn't bullish, we could sell off.  The report wasn't bullish and right at the open we recommended selling corn.  The limit down move sets up a further break as the volume today wasn't that heavy.  This could indicate more selling so tomorrow we will be looking to see what level of liquidation we get.  The high today may be the highest price we se in a while.  Weather will be the main factor now.  

Wheat – Sharply lower as corn collapses.  The ration of corn to wheat is very close to historical levels and that will keep wheat under pressure with the numbers today.  We still see it sideways over the near term but corn could push back toward support.

Beans – Beans rallied late even with corn down and finished strong.  I liked he report for beans and it could keep this market firm near term; however, get ready to sell.  Without a major weather problem, we may see this market test support.

Rice – Limit up.  The report was not bullish but the squeeze in July futures is.  Still sideways for September.

Cotton-  The report this morning was a little bearish but the market fell apart.  We will test support but longer term this one is getting better.

Natural Gas –  I sound like a broken CD but...we have still not made new highs here.  I think we will.

Crude Oil - If its good it should go.  There is a lot of selling here but we are still holding right at $140.00.  The chart could go either way so I am not trading here.

Gold -  Nothing new here.  Holding over $900 and if it stays here much longer, we could move on toward the $1000 level.

Dow - Quiet day.  Oversold so a rally is likely  

Cattle – Lower with the corn.  That should be the case near term.

Friday June 27th -

Corn -  Quiet day as the market prepares for Monday's numbers.

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE -  The current trend is up with volatility still growing at this point.  The market is in the supply side phase and has a big question regarding the actual supply coming from this crop.  Harvested acres will be given on Monday and that could put pressure or support the market if there is a surprise.  With a bullish number we could head for $8.00 while a bearish number could bring in substantial selling.  The weather market phase is still in tact but losing time to do more than it has. 

Wheat – Down 28 and giving a huge warning signal that this run is ending. 

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - The trend is showing higher right now but still could be setting up sideways. 

Beans – Down 2 and waiting on Monday's numbers.  Read corn comments as they hold here as well. 

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - The trend is higher with volatility in an upward phase as well.  We are in the Supply side here just as corn. The new high on Friday saw little follow through so be prepared for a negative reaction to the numbers on Monday.  Support is 80 cents below the current level.

Rice – Down 31 to 18 in the new crop.  Market has seen no support while the grains have bounced the last two weeks. 

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - The trend here is now sideways. and holding.  A test of $17.70 remains possible on this leg. 

We have sold a almost all of our cash rice and have gone back to the board on about 50% of that.  Over the past two days we have stopped advancing and we could test support so I am backing off my 50% long position.    

Cotton- A key reversal down today.  Follow through would setup a test of $75 in the Dec. 

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - Still looks sideway.  December has seen volatility increase this past week which favors the current up trending values.  We still think the market will need to buy acres and at this price hasn't begun to do so.    

Natural Gas – Still not making new highs even as crude does.  The hook reversal on Friday needs follow through to the downside. 

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - We remain in a beautiful uptrend with the first sign of a top made on Thursday the 19th with a massive Key reversal down.  Last Wednesday we say a key reversal up on heavy volume so now we let the high and the 19th and last Wednesdays low, set the range for the market.  I doubt it stays in this range long.  Volatility has actually begun to fall indicating more selling at this level.  For now we will stay on the sidelines and wait for more information.  

Crude Oil - A new high but the formation indicates a possible bull trap.  It looks like two happens pointing at each other and the formation usually is followed by aggressive selling.  Friday's high is major resistance. 

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - Trend is higher after testing the 21 day moving average.  Volatility is rising.  We see the market having some real resistance at this level so a break is very possible in the next couple of weeks.  Even so, we would not be selling it short. 

Gold -  Spec buying based on the dollar value has the market at the top of the sideways range for gold. 

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - Sideways as the market looks at the dollar and the world economic picture.   Until there is a breakout, we are not buying here. 

Dow -Down 106.  Market maybe a little oversold and needs a bounce.  

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE -  As I said last week, the bulls are in big trouble and the market is now looking at a full blown recession.  Longer term we could sell off to the 10,600 level but I would expect a rally to correct some of the nasty selling we have been getting.  Volatility is rising in the break and we are near the bottom of all the main trading channels which indicates its oversold.  Also, we are very far from the 9 week moving average at over 1100 points.  That is huge.   Look for some dead cat buying near term but do not be a buyer of this market. 

Cattle – Up 125 looking like it wants to test the highs again. 

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - Volatility is very high indicating solid buying in this rally but also warning of some exhaustion.  The trend is firmly higher with the strength index indicating a strong uptrend in place.  We will be looking for a signal that these conditions are ending.  

Thursday June 26th -

Corn -  Up sharply taking out the highs and moving to new all time highs in the December contract.  July hit limit up but that only equaled the recent highs.  Weather remains the problem here and that has me more than just a little concerned.  The reason....this may be more of knee jerk reaction then more damage.  It is true, the crop is going to have a very hard time making trend line yields for the acres that are harvested.  But at the same time, as prices advance we are rationing the crop.  It may be that the report on Monday is not that bullish but is completely ignored because of the new situation in the Mid-west.  If that is true, then the issue remains, how big of a crop will we have.

What I fear near term is a hard sell-off because the damage is not that much more and the forecast turns off dry.  That is the current 6-10 day so by next week, we may see a nice correction here.  Consider selling the September, $8.00 call at 50 cents.  It caps you at $8.50 and gives you some protection for break down if the forecasts turn bearish.   

Wheat – Funds appear to be coming out of shorts and legging out of short wheat/ long corn positions.  Not sure how high this can go right now but I do not want to be short for sure.  A break in corn could allow some profit taking.  

Beans – Right back up to all time highs in the August.  I am still not selling here but for the first time, we are starting to consider the risk in being long the whole crop.  As of now I have no reason to sell this but we will be looking for ways to start the process. 

Rice – Down again with the rest of the grains higher.  This is not good.  Imagine what would happen if the grains broke.  We like being sold in the cash and out of long futures for now.  The time will come when we want to store out crop in futures but its not right now.  

Cotton- This is looking even better.  It looks to me like December is headed for the highs and and probably will take them out.  Owning on a break with a stop under 79 is a good way to play if you must. 

Natural Gas – After dropping below the 21 day moving average, August gas turned and put in a massive-key reversal up.  We need follow through higher tomorrow...if that doesn't happen, look out below.  I have no idea what is going to happen here.  

Crude Oil - Huge move higher as the dollar sells off and the market yells at the Fed about the value of the US Dollar. Oil need a close over $140.75 to setup a move to...$150.00 a barrel. 

Gold -  Market rallied sharply today closing over $915.00.  This was because the Fed did nothing.  One day does not a market make so lets see how it looks tomorrow night and Monday before buying into this one.   

Dow - Down 358 points.  The market has now broke through all support for 2008 and is headed for the 11,000 level of support.  We have a system that forecasts a move to 10,700.   We have been bearish here for months and nothing is going to change for awhile.  The recession will get worse and the world will follow down the same slope.  It could be next year before we consider going long stocks.    

Cattle – A little higher in Dec with the market still not into new highs.  Tomorrow???   Could be but the grains had better hold.  

Wednesday June 25th -

Corn -  Up 18 on short covering based on short covering.  The market is 4 higher in the overnight market.  We could get a good test of the highs here but again, the forecasts must stay wet enough to get more damage.  The crop report on Monday will be huge for this market as well.  Can't buy it and I can't sell it so we stay long the cash and hope we get another push higher. 

Wheat – Higher on short covering here like the corn.  Funds have been short so they are coming out.   

Beans – Sharply higher on weather and technical buying.  This needs to hold. 

Rice – Down 40 again today after the limit down move yesterday.  I still see it sideways. 

Cotton- Nothing new here.  Dec is holding over 80 and that is good.  I like longer term. 

Natural Gas – We may have a top here.  The market didn't close below our 12.92 level which is key.  In the overnight trade Nat gas is lower so we'll see if tomorrow we can't get a better handle on things. 

Crude Oil - A sharp move down couldn't hold and crude rallied late in the day session to finish in no-mans land.  Still under $140 so the top formation still looks good.  A move under $131 is bearish. 

Gold -  Still around the $890 level.  We could inch higher here with the dollar easing again.

Dow - Up 4 but this one still has lower to go. 

Cattle – Higher with the grains.  I expect a good challenge of the highs. 

Tuesday June 24th -

Corn -  Down 11 on a hook reversal down.  If thee is follow through tomorrow and the market closes lower, we could see a good pull back to find major support.  Monday's report may not allow for much of a break but the selling today indicates to me that farmers have begun selling this crop in a big way.  It will take some bullish news to turn off the spicket.   For now, look for more downside pressure until the market can balance out the recent rise.  As I type this the market is down 1 in the overnight session. 

Here are some comments from this morning in case you didn't read them.

Regarding the corn and beans...Last night I read as many bearish arguments as I could (which is a good thing to do to keep your eyes on the ball.)  The best argument is that the market has risen too fast, is pushed too much by speculators, and demand has to drop at these levels.  All good arguments but these are the same arguments given by same people back on January 1st when corn was $4.40.  These  arguments have not been able to turn corn lower because they simply are not true.  It has risen much faster before, speculators come and go and they do not own the largest position they have ever had at this moment.  Finally, look at the demand...there has been a slowing of buying in corn but the carryover number indicates that usage remains high enough to keep the market at these levels until we are sure the pipeline will be at a minimum level.  If there is any further loss to the supply, we will have to keep on going higher to ration this crop.

The point is, if there is not any more damage and the crop starts to look bigger...then we are subject to a move back to the mid $6.00 range.  Look for volatility to continue and tomorrow is going to be interesting. 

Wheat – The only thing higher today.  Harvest is well underway and I think a lot of the selling is done.  Market looks sideways.  

Beans – Down 14 on more liquidation.  We need to find support for the beans but they will be watching the corn market. 

Rice – Limit down and as I type this, we are another 50 cents lower in the overnight.  We may have cut a little too much out of the market here but look for the market to trade for support as we hold here in a sideways market. 

Cotton- Up 90 and still looking like its sideways...at least right now. 

Natural Gas – We still have not taken out last Thursday's high.  Today's action was negative and if we are down tomorrow, we may have indeed found a top.  Watch this one closely. 

Crude Oil - Still under $140.  A move under $131 will setup a nice little break in crude...by the way...that is not good news for the economy as it indicates we are worse than thought.  Sure its nice for prices but my point is that demand is softening and that may be a direct result of the recession taking hold. 

Gold -  Sideways with no reason to own it. 

Dow - A little lower today.  Fed meeting will keep things a little quieter. 

Cattle – A little lower and watching corn.   

Monday June 23rd -

Corn -  Up 2 on the day but almost 20 off the lows.  We said last week a test of $7.00 could not be ruled out and today's break tested that level; however, another test is also not that impossible.  A close over $7.33 would setup a test of the highs.  I think there needs to be some more weather information before that can happen.  Is $7.50 corn too expensive???  It is if you need to buy $6.00 corn to survive.  Problem is, I don't see anyone needing to buy at that price and a whole lot who want to buy at that price.  Near term, I think breaks should be bought but we need to watch the action in the market as much as we can.  

Wheat – Unchanged for the most part.  After the close the USDA said 22% of the crop had been harvested which sets up a little more selling with the idea that crop sales are still going to happen near term.  I still see this market as sideways so a pull back is expected.  We will be owning wheat on  pull back to support. 

Beans – Down 17 on good weather ideas.  Crop progress has been OK too so as little more weakness is possible until the next weather scare. 

Rice – News that the Typhoon hitting the Philippians did damage to the rice crop got some buying interest going.  Pretty hard to equate that to the futures market but it still shows the concern for supplies in the near term.  I call it still sideways but a breakout into new highs will dash that idea.  Even so, I will be selling some rice as it approaches $20.00 in the September contract.  

Cotton- Down 29.  Nothing new for us here.  Read Friday's big picture on this one. 

Natural Gas – Make sure you have read our Friday's Big Picture comments.   The Key reversal down last Thursday is still holding the market but not by much.  We are approaching the highs here and it looks like we could easily break through.  As I have been saying.  This is going to be a good market to sell at some point but there is no sign of a top and until that happens, I wouldn't touch this on the short side with a ten foot pole.  I am even willing to own it if it breaks cleanly into new highs. 

Crude Oil -

The Saudi thing is over and the market told them what it thought about their attempt to take the fear out of the market.  Not very much.  Even so, the market didn't make new highs either so it looks a little sideways at the top with $140 holding as major resistance.  If that is taken out...$150 is next. 

Gold -  Still hovering near $890.  We would buy a nice break but not here...at least not just yet. 

Dow - unchanged which is a good thing.  The problem remains the market is accepting this new lower value and it it sits here very long, another leg down is likely. 

Cattle – A little lower but nothing to talk about. 

Friday June 20th -

Corn -  Down 6 on Friday as the market sees more profit taking.  $7.15 may be taken out near term and a test of $7.00 but a major leg down is not likely here.  

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE -  The current trend is up with volatility still growing at this point.  The market is in the supply side phase and has a big question regarding the actual supply coming from this crop.  Harvested acres will be of a lower percentage more than likely.  Breaks should be bought but it must be remember that breaks will be larger and margin money is going to be very precious.  We have sold 20 to 25% of the crop as a base and are looking to sell additional corn very soon.  I can see us selling up to 75% in the next 8 weeks but with volatility like it is, that could come from well over $8.00 if things remain unsettled.  The June 30th planting report will the next big USDA number to influence the market and next week we will start getting all of the private forecasts. 

Wheat – Down 14 as the market may have found some resistance to establish a sideways market. 

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - The trend is possible sideways with a slight chance it has turned into a bull market.  Usually we do not go from a major bear to a major bull market quiet this fast but what is usual anymore.  This market is in a Supply-Demand phase and will soon enter the Demand phase alone.  Sideways is my guess with volatility starting to head lower.  A buy near $8.50 is where we would stand; however, if corn can really break out and head for $9.00....corn will move back over $10.00. 

Beans – Down 16 with the corn.  No changes in our ideas. 

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - The trend is higher with volatility in an upward phase as well.  We are in the Supply side here just as corn. AN intermediate top is possible with the news of dryer weather coming for the bean areas.  That would indicate a possible $1.00 pull back if corn does the same.  We want to buy breaks for a weather jump later this summer but for now, we remain with no sales and looking to sell the market  higher.   With that said, we remain in the bull camp for now looking to buy breaks. 

Rice – Up 1 to 11 as the market sees a little weakness at the end of the day. 

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - The trend here is now sideways like wheat.  Volatility is dropping but has slowed its decline the last several days.  Here to we are in the supply side of the market with several weeks to go before the first rice is cut in South Texas and Louisiana.  Cash prices are holding in this areas but show some signs of weakness and the remains concern for the crop conditions given the heat and dry conditions in the south.  

We have sold a almost all of our cash rice and have gone back to the board on about 50% of that.  Over the past two days we have stopped advancing and we could test support.    

Cotton- A little higher today.  

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - We may have entered a sideways trading range here.  December has seen volatility increase a lot since June 1st and it has us in a short term up trend.  I think the other grains will influence the market here until we get into the demand phase of the market.  We need to buy acres for next year and that may start very soon.  

Natural Gas – Up again and looking to test recent highs.  The market hit our $13.25 objective and if we are able to make new highs....look out.  For now I will stand on the cautious side of the market and that means...I am not trading it. 

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - We are in a beautiful uptrend with the first sign of a top made on Thursday with a massive Key reversal down.  Volatility has spiked higher the last three days which is a corresponding condition of a top with massive volatility.  Even so, there are conditions that may warrant the market to move even higher.  For now we will stay on the sidelines and wait for more information.  

Crude Oil - Up $2.11 and struggling against this resistance point. 

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - Trend is higher and testing the 21 day moving average.  Volatility is rising but we have been in a tight range since June 9th.  $131 is support and Friday's low set right down on it.  A break near term is possible as the market has seen a lot of buying and while I don't think the Saudi meeting will do anything, there is signs of a major slow down in usage as the recession really gets going.  We would not be long up here but at the same time, we wouldn't be short.  At least not yet.   

Gold -  Holding over $900. 

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - Sideways as the market looks at the dollar and the would economic picture and finds no reason to move either way.  Volatility is down from the highs but still showing some good action.  The market looks to be in a 50 cent range for awhile.    

Dow -Down 220.  We remain bearish here and look for 16,000 to possible be tested.  This break is bad news and the bulls are in big trouble. 

Cattle – Up 70 in front of this afternoon's crop report. 

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - Friday's cattle on feed was a little bullish but mostly neutral.  Looks to be still in a situation to follow the corn market around.  The trend remains higher, the volatility is growing big time.  This would indicate that we should see good technical action at the top.  So far, there has been no sign of one. 

Friday June 20th -

General Comment -  On Saturday, I will do the "Big Picture" and have that posted here by Saturday Night.  Let me just say that today was a nothing day with more profit taking in all the grains.  We closed near the lows which is also short term support so unless something dramatic changes before Monday, we could easily sell off a little more.  Weather remains the big issue and we are entering that time period where we go from too wet to too hot and dry.  We should find support soon and then build a a base to launch into new highs. 

No real comments on rice as it looks like it is already building a sideways base for its next leg.  Let's just hope it is a higher leg.   

The Dow's troubles should continue in my opinion.  As you know I have been bearish securities on the long haul and expect the world conditions to hit corporate America in the next 6 months.

More later on Saturday....   

Thursday June 19th -

Corn -  Is it over???  I don't think so.  Corn broke hard today at one time down 28 but came back and finished off about 18.  In the night session it is down another 10 cents.  A lot of talk of lower demand has the market selling off with profit taking and we could still break to $7.00 but I still do not see this as THE top.  Maybe A top but not THE top. 

As the bottom-line comment says, there is risk to both sides here and we will get thrown around waiting for the next move.  Look for more volatility but odds still favor a higher move.

Bottom-line:  There is risk in the market place at this level but there is just as much risk in being sold.  Stay right where you are for now.    

Wheat – Lower with Dec down 23.  Look for consolidation but again, the market will follow corn and beans near term.   

Beans – Down 21 in new crop as beans whip lower with corn.  Once we see support kick in, we could build another base for one last push higher with a weather concern the next 8 weeks. 

Rice – Sharply lower with July down 50.  I still don't like this chart but it is hard to know exactly what this one is going to do.  I am not trading it.  I am in my base position of short cash and long futures at about 50%.   

Cotton-  Down sharply with the grains.  Today was a key reversal down and setup a move to test the lows at 71 in the Dec. 

Natural Gas – The market broke with a massive key reversal down today sending July well under $13.00.  We have been writing about that $13.25 level as the target and how we felt the market would break off that resistance point.  That has occurred.  Now we wait to see if there is follow through. 

Crude Oil - We once again failed to make new contract highs and closed with a massive Key reversal down and off over $4.85.   We have been writing about the possible top here and today's action may help; however, this break is a lot about the meeting this weekend by the world oil countries and companies and frankly, I expect nothing to to come out of it so would sell off tomorrow and then snap back after the meeting produces nothing. 

Gold -  A higher close as gold finishes over $900 again.  Is there follow through buying tomorrow???  If so we could have an indicator that it is headed higher. 

Dow –Up 34 but this one still looks weak to me. 

Cattle – Down 45 today as corn sells off.  Not much reason to sell it right here. 

Wednesday June 18th -

Corn - 

Higher after trying to run lower earlier in the day.  The market is still consolidating under the recent $7.58 high.  The market still looks higher to me and I expect new highs in the days ahead. 

Bottom-line:  There is risk in the market place at this level but there is just as much risk in being sold.  Stay right where you are for now.    

Wheat – Higher with corn.  Nothing else to report. 

Beans – Bean damage is much smaller than in corn and there is more time to make the crop.  Nothing new from us as we see it higher still.  It is the wrong time of year for a major break given the current unknowns in the fundamentals. 

Rice – Lower today but here at night the market has firmed up and wiped out the losses of the day.  The chart is not as bullish but the the market may head for $20.50 in the September.  We want to sell this summer rally based on what we se right now but we will let the market tell us when.  

Cotton-  Higher today but still no change in our ideas.  The good news is that yesterdays reversal didn't follow through so that makes Wednesday's low support and Tuesday's high resistance. 

Natural Gas – We are at that magical number of $13.25.  The next few days are going to be very critical in this market holing in this level.  If it does....$15.00 becomes a real target. 

Crude Oil - Back and forth it goes.  Lower early today and finishing over $2.65 cent higher.  We still see a possible top but if we make new contract highs...$150.00 maybe a slam funk.  

Gold -  Nothing new.  We are looking again at the $900.00 level but a weaker dollar could hurt.     

Dow –Down 131 and looking to take out 12,000 again. 

Cattle – Up 35 and holding with corn.  It is a follower right now. 

Tuesday June 17th -

Corn -  Corn finished 10 higher as concern continues on damage to the Iowa corn crop and elsewhere.  Corn in Illinois is now estimated at 12 inches high compared to 35 inches this time last year.  That will keep the corn from getting to pollination in front of the major heat time in the Mid-west.  Will it be too hot then...who knows but the market realizes that there is going to be a lower crop than is on the books right now unless the weather is perfect from here on out.  At 9 PM the market is another 10 cents higher in the night trade. 

The high for this move is $7.58.  That could provide some resistance near term; however, if we move over that level, $8.00 is next.  In that case I would expect some back and fill along the way UNLESS there is more damage reported.  If there is more damage reported, we could enter a straight up period that takes us sharply higher. 

Bottom-line:  There is risk in the market place at this level but there is just as much risk in being sold.  Stay right where you are for now.    

Wheat – There is no way wheat can break with corn doing what it is doing.  Being long here is not that risky.  Do not be selling anything if you have a long position. 

Beans – Higher with corn.  Damage is being reported in Iowa to the bean crop and replanting may be out of the question.  Things are going to be tight. 

Rice – Spread trading sent old crop lower and new crop higher but the fact is there is no selling right here.  The whole world is worried about grain supplies and damage in Arkansas is also on the news wires.   We still see it higher but we know that things can change and change quickly.  We will be ready to dump long futures positions when the time is right. 

Cotton-  Lower with a big hook reversal down.  If we have follow through selling tomorrow, we may have found that resistance point we have been looking for. 

Natural Gas – Over $13.00 today again and the selling is not showing up.  That makes me think the $13.25 level is in sight on a move higher.  Then we will be looking for some selling and a correction.  Not that we are saying its going to happen but it certainly could and we will be looking for a reason to sell it. 

Crude Oil - The market tested the 21 day moving average today and bounced off of it.  I expect to be tested again and soon.  Frankly, I am turning bearish here just because the market is struggling and while Monday's move took us into new highs, it certainly didn't hold and has turn the chart a little negative right here.  Diesel buyers should be on the lowest volume purchase level they can do right now. 

Gold -  Holding in that $880 to $890 level.  The dollar is also holding in the $1.55 Euro level.   

Dow –Down 109...I will tell you I am bearish here because the market is not factoring in the slow deterioration of the consumers buying power.  Gasoline may pull back but costs for energy is going to be passed on to consumers here during the summer and things are going to slow down economically a little more.  

Cattle – A little lower.  I look for more up if corn breaks over its recent highs.   

Monday June 16th -

Corn -  The huge overnight gain in corn was wiped out by profit taking and selling in front of this afternoons reports on the crop condition.  Those reports were not that bullish but they weren't bearish either.  At 6:30 PM the market is trading down 2 cents with beans actually a little higher. 

Technically we are overbought with the market a long way from its moving averages so a correction is really in order but at the same time, actual damage changes a lot of the technical structure.  The questions will now focus on the weather the next 12 weeks and the actual loss in the fields.  Look for more volatility and while a corrective pull back remains in the cards, I don't have a good reason to add to sales or sell futures and call this THE top.  

Wheat – A hook reversal down as wheat is now overbought.  It is possible that we have established some resistance levels or what could be the top of a sideways range.  I think that is what should happen unless corn breaks in to new highs substantially.  For now we remain out looking for a break to buy back some of the wheat.  

Beans – Very strong closing up 44 cents.  The idea that cash is really firm and that futures receipts may move to the market has the July firming.  The idea that the Mississippi is going to be a mess over the next two weeks also has some buying in the market.  The problem is that New crop was higher than old which doesn't support either position.  We will stay right where we are waiting for more information.  

Rice – Strange as the market sold off 50 cents yesterday and was up 51 today.  The market is very quiet and it looks like someone got a good lessen in how NOT to trade rice on the close yesterday.  The only thing to say here is be careful...be very careful.  We need rice to catch fire like wheat did today or else we are subject to more downside action.  The trend is down and with all the grains limit up, rice being lower is not a good sign.  We may need to dip to find where the quality buying is. 

Cotton-  Limit up again today as cotton reacts to crop conditions and the general shortage of cotton acres now and in the future if prices are not higher.   As we said last week, this market is probably ready to go so we will buy breaks during the summer.  

Natural Gas – Over $13.00 as Nat gas has hit our objective.  Doesn't mean it will not go higher but I do think $13.25 will be strong resistance on its first approach. 

Crude Oil - Lower now setup to once again test the $130 dollar level. 

Gold -  Still under $900.  We are not owning gold here. 

Dow –Down 38 with a good bounce off of 12,000 again.  I look for another test of that level. 

Cattle – Live cattle will follow feed prices now.  It is the logical situation with the current numbers and financial shape of feeders. 

Friday June 13th - 

General Comment -  I went through everything pretty well on the Webinar Friday morning.  Let me do a quick update here as we look toward next week.

Corn looks even higher but I can see some major profit taking in the next few days.  This is not a time to sell however unless you have been long futures and want to book profit.  Even then, there is no sign yet to do any selling.  Monday's condition report will be watched extremely close and if it says the crop has really deteriorated, then we will  look for buy the rumor sell the fact.   In any event, we are still of a mind to buy breaks here as damage is a fact and the supply of corn is a major unknown right now.  We will be looking for a reason to change this idea. 

Soybeans are in the same condition.  Wet weather is really putting a scare in the beans.  Notice I said scare.  Damage is not a sure thing here yet so be careful.  Wheat will get drug higher near term with the rest of the complex.

Rice has broken the trend line and looks to check resistance.  I can actually see July near $21.50 before we encounter major resistance.  We have bought enough futures to move back to only 25% sold which is where we have basically been all along.  Near term it looks higher as well.

Energy markets still look like they are putting in a form of a top.  Watch crude at the $130.00 level.  Buy diesel on a hand to mouth basis for now.  Natural Gas could also work lower but again, there is a whole different world in gas.  A hurricane in the eastern gulf will explode this market higher.  

I will have a full update Monday night...  

Thursday June 12th - 

Don't forget...Webinar at 8:30 in the morning. 

General Comment -  I will make this short tonight since we will go over all the markets in detail in the morning.  The run up in corn has found some resistance right here so we could go sideways for a few days or even test for support at lower levels.  If crude explodes higher then corn will follow.  At issue here in the grains is both weather and outside markets but mainly supply.  We are in the supply side of the market phase and it is very hard to get a handle on what the supply of grain will be.  Near term, traders need to be very careful because this is the kind of market than break 50 cents and then rally 3 bucks.  Volatility is on the way back up so near term, I see it wild but still higher for corn and beans.   Wheat should also work higher but at a slower pace until the corn gets a top.  Buying breaks is the best of you need to buy and producers, stay right where you are.  There is along way to go in this weather season. 

Rice remains in a down trend but it is challenging it.  The market is trading very low volume numbers right here so the volatility is dropping and the market is waiting for more news.  I still see higher longer term near term is another story.  Be comfortable is the best advice I can give.

Nat gas still looks strong...crude has not made new highs but could after it consolidates here a little longer. 

Wednesday June 11th - From Houston

Corn -  Limit Up today as the market explodes over worries about corn and crude oil prices.  Our target of $7.05 will be easily passed in tonight's trade and once again, remember a target is not our projected price of a top.  It can keep on going.  In fact, tonight's market will be interesting.  If we open higher and form a gap, we will get a new target so the next few days will be interesting. 

No reason to sell anything until we get some kind of information that gives us concern about price risk to the downside.  We have none right here except our own perceptions of how markets top.  For now, let her rip!!!  

Wheat – So much for a break to buy today.  Limit up as wheat follows corn.  There is no other reason for this except corn so watch out for a sharp corrective move.  Then look to see where the buying support is.  We certainly could trade higher early in the overnight session but this one is really suspect given the current fundamentals.  Not that we think it will break into new lows because as we said last night, the lows are in.  Now we look for GOOD buying opportunities and at this price, this is not one of them

Beans – Limit Up on oil and corn.  This move of 70 cents is suspect as well but the buying doesn't look to be done and I am not wanting to sell anything here just yet.  We will have an options strategy for both sides for Friday's Webinar. 

Rice – Strange as the market sold off 50 cents yesterday and was up 51 today.  The market is very quiet and it looks like someone got a good lessen in how NOT to trade rice on the close yesterday.  The only thing to say here is be careful...be very careful.  We need rice to catch fire like wheat did today or else we are subject to more downside action.  The trend is down and with all the grains limit up, rice being lower is not a good sign.  We may need to dip to find where the quality buying is. 

Cotton-  Limit up today as the market caught some signs of what could happen if cotton acres stay at this level.  It is almost time to own deferred months of cotton.  I want more information from the price action but today the market closed over the trend line that has had the market pointed lower since the highs at 95 cents in July.   

Natural Gas – It is looking less and less like a bull trap.  Look for a move toward $13.00 which has been our target for weeks IF we make a new high.  Tomorrows inventory report will be very important. 

Crude Oil - Sharply higher but we did not make new highs.  We could do that tomorrow.  Fuel buyers should be back on had to mouth here watching the action.  Heating oil (Diesel) was just 2 cents from its all time highs in July as it rose 17 cents.  Looks like it will make new highs given the current information.  We are still 8million barrels below last years level which was the lowest going back to 1992.  There is no sign of a top here in any way.  

Gold -  Up $12.00 but still below the $900 mark.  We are out needing a move over $920 to setup a charge toward $1000 an ounce.

Dow –Here is what I wrote last night..."watch tomorrow or Thursday for a test of lows.  IF that happens, we could push lower over the next several sessions."

It happened...Down 206 and looking at 12,000 again.  11,700 is major support and then 11,600.  Those levels better hold.   

Cattle – Feeders are lower under the pressure of corn prices but the fats continue to hold up especially in the deferred contracts.  I cannot be a seller here.  Cattle prices over $120 later this year are possible.   

Tuesday June 10th - From New York

Corn -  USDA numbers just show how tight it is going to be and sent the market sharply higher by the close.  Our target remains $7.05 for the July.

Wheat – Higher today following corn and the fat the USDA had no big surprises.  The lows are in and we will be looking to buy beaks.

Beans – Nothing to spur the market higher.  Weather will remain the focus.

Rice – Limit down in July but as I type this July is up 42.  I do not understand all that I am seeing tonight.  I show Nov down 56 and July up 42.  TO me this makes no sense so I will wait and see how things look in the morning but we could sell off a little more based on the report.  The problem is, the crop is in bad shape and could stay below trend yields.  We are short cash, long 25% to 50% in the futures which is a good place to be right here.  We need more information to change our approach.

Cotton-  Still out waiting for more news.  Nothing has changed for us...longer term we want to own it but not now. 

Natural Gas – Lower today so watch tomorrow for downside follow through.  Remember, this could be a bull trap and that is what we are concerned about.  

Crude Oil - Lower and now we wait to see if we also get a bull trap formation here.  Don not be buying this one just yet.

Gold -  Nothing new...Looks sideways  with a major low for the dollar. 

Dow –Up 9...watch tomorrow or Thursday for a test of lows.  IF that happens, we could push lower over the next several sessions.

Cattle – Higher today so wait for the market to see where its selling kicks back in.

Monday June 9th - From New York

Corn -  Wet weather and more concern for a slow developing crop has the bulls thinking $7.00 rationing for corn.  I agree IF we don't have any surprise from the government.  Tomorrow's report will tell the tale for the current crop year and next.  Today's action doesn't mean much as profit taking brought us off highs but we never went down on the day. We would buy a break unless there is a major surprise tomorrow morning. 

Wheat – As I said in the Friday comments, this market is officially sideways.  We closed 50 off the highs today a the market appears to not quiet be ready for a sharp move higher.

Beans – Lower today after the big opening.  We may see more selling here as farmers give up on corn and switch to beans.  It is still a weather market.  sellers should be patient.

Rice – The tend is still down and there is some selling as we approach the down trend line.  Cash prices have pulled back in the new crop so the basis levels are way out again.  We locked in a positive basis on our whole first crop and right now we would not want to be more than 50% sold or in other words, no more than 50% long futures. 

So again, we sold all of our cash crop for the 2008 harvest.  Bought back 25 to 50% and will buy back more if we change the direction of the market.  Right now it's a personal preference as to what level you want to be bought back at but until the trend changes, it is what it is...

Cotton-  Still out waiting for more news.  Nothing has changed for us...longer term we want to own it but not now. 

Natural Gas – Another huge volume day as August gas consolidates inside of Friday's range.  Watch crude for direction.

Crude Oil - Traders now look at the market and wonder if we have a bull trap.  I give it a 40% chance that it is and 60% odd we will make yet another new high. 

Gold -  Nothing new...Looks sideways  with a major low for the dollar. 

Dow –Down 400 Friday and up 70 today.  This is going to get interesting. 

Cattle – More down today as the market consolidates the run up.

Friday June 6th - From New York

Corn -  Still heading higher and getting a lot of help from Crude Oil today.  $7.05 is the target for July.  If there is a weather scare here, we could see corn over $8.00.  We will sell this general move higher so be prepared.

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE -  This past week is significant in that the market has broke out of its sideways formation and points higher.  The fact that we are in the supply driven time frame sets the market up for extreme moves as weather plays a major factor.

Wheat – Sharply higher as the idea of enough being sold earl has caught the attention of the market.  We will roll our puts higher but we nee a break to do that.  Hold on to the short Puts for now.  

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE -  Harvest selling is declining as farmers have sold what they need to.  Officially the market is sideways as we look for resistance.

Beans – Up 5 cents is not a lot for the beans given the rest of the grains.  We could be hitting some resistance at this level.  Still no reason for us to do any selling.

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE -  The trend has shifted back to higher as we probe for the pre-harvest weather high.

Rice – July is moving sharply higher as ideas of more export business creates a shortage of sellers.  Traders beware. The September contract is still below the trend line which will keep technical sellers in the market.  Today's high is the buy point for many techs.  If old crop can continue higher, it will be re-visited.

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE -  The trend is still down but could get violated.  World market prices will be important the next few months to establish direction.  

Cotton-  Still out waiting for more news.  Nothing has changed for us...longer term we want to own it but not now. 

Natural Gas – $13.00 remains the target. 

Crude Oil - We were wrong on this one.  Iran news has pushed this one into new highs busting up the top formation.  This will put more upside pressure on Diesel as well.  We would be a little more aggressive on the buy side short term so we can see if this is a bull trap.

Gold -  Nothing new...Looks sideways  with a major low for the dollar. 

Dow –Down almost 400 points.  Still think it could trade lower.

Cattle – Could correct some more.

Thursday June 5th - From New York

Corn -  WOW!!!  Concerns about the crop and ideas that exports will continue strong drove the market higher today by 28 cents.  This sets up a move to $7.05 in the July and $7.40 in the 2009 March contract.

Wheat – Powerful day today as wheat exploded up 33 cents.  This is the type of action we need to see a low confirmation for wheat.  At first glance it looks like the “saucer bottom” formation has been violated but that may not be true.   A move over $8.00 starts a leg higher and destroys the formation.  In any event, we have been saying for some time that the lows are in here and we old to that.

Beans – Strong day here as well.  Wet weather is really causing problems here or at least has traders worried.  Rain makes grain however and unless it stays wet a long time, eventually rain will be bearish. 

Rice – Limit Up on light volume.  Yesterday we were down 50 but large export sales helped push July up 75 cents today and over 50 for September and November.  Commercial buying remains strong.

Cotton-  Still out waiting for more news.  Nothing has changed for us...longer term we want to own it but not now. 

Natural Gas – $13.00 is the target and it is so hard to believe we missed the break here.  Even so, things are setting up for a top.  It could come higher than $13.00 but it may be associated with a secondary top in crude.  Read below.

Crude Oil - This bounce in crude oil should be sold. We will do that and then if crude makes a new high, dump the shorts.  A Kondratieff top is what we will be looking f.

Gold -  Nothing new...Looks sideways  with a major low for the dollar. 

Dow –Big move higher today as the buyers came back with a vengeance.  Frankly, the buying is strong enough to take us higher near term but things may still get a little tough later this year.

Cattle – Hook reversal to the upside yesterday had follow through buying today.  New highs are the target.

Wednesday June 4th - From New York

Corn -  A little higher.  Market seems reluctant to move much.  No changes in our ideas here.

Wheat – Quiet day here as well. We remain short Puts and will wait for things to start looking ok.

Beans – Nice firm close on little news.  Nothing o do here either.

Rice – Limit down on light volume.  We will test the lows and see how the buying comes in.  If we make new lows, the market could sell off another $1.00.

Cotton- Still out waiting for more news.  Nothing has changed for us...longer term we want to own it but not now. 

Natural Gas – New highs with no sign of a top. 

Crude Oil - Still working lower.  A bounce is likely at some point but the market has done damage to the bull argument.

Gold -  Nothing new...Looks sideways  with a major low for the dollar. 

Dow -Down 12... no reason to trade.

Cattle – Hook reversal up.  Could test recent highs.

Tuesday June 3rd