Tuesday October 31st -  ....Tuesday's Closing Comments

Corn - Corn couldn't hold with wheat and beans down hard.  The market looks like it is testing near term support but the chart in corn now looks like wheat did a week ago.  And it is not pretty.  A move under $3.15 in December could bring in a test of $3.00 but I think the odds favor the gap holding so this break is a buying opportunity in my opinion.  Patience near term is advised.  

Wheat - Major break today.  As we have been warning you, the wheat chart looked and still looks horrible; however, the main fundamentals have not changed.  The current fundamentals are a good supply of cash wheat and known demand.  The longer term outlook is more bullish but that is longer term and for the near term, things are going to get nasty. 

Beans - If you need to sell beans in this quarter, sell 50% NOW!!!  And get ready to sell the other 50% very soon.  Today's action sets up a good break here.

Rice - We bought some rice today to get back to 20% long in January on the break.  This will be interesting but I'm not ready to chase it at all.  Patience should be used here too.  Remember, open interest is down and a move like today may not hold for long.  I'm not saying it will or won't, I'm suggesting that there is two sided trade here and one day doesn't change that...YET!!!

Cattle - Same comments as last night...."Further down today as the market rolls over after the bounce.  This sets us up to test the lows and I think they will be easily taken out.  The fundamentals are changing here and its not good news."   

Natural Gas - The market fell to support just over the $7.00 level...so now what????  I'm not sure and I don't really need to trade it right here. so we will let the market tell us what it needs.  Fact is, we may have fallen into a large sideways trading range.

Dow - Market maybe heading lower in front of the election...longer term I would agree that a Democrat controlled congress will be negative corporate profits.  They have been promising way too much; however, near term, it won't make much difference.  I see it higher but a move lower is certainly possible near term. 

Tuesday October 31st -  ....Opening Update

Grains - Look out today...wheat will open down through major support and the funds will not hold to positions.  This will cause cross selling into corn and setup a test of $3.20 in the Dec corn near term.  The chart is so bearish in wheat that the effect could bring in a another short term top in corn.  Funds are extremely long in corn so their buying power is going to be minimal. 

Monday October 30th -  ....Monday's Closing Comments

Corn - We basically held in the daily range from Friday.  Wheat was under pressure and that didn't help.  Concern the funds are too long and their buying is about to dry up may be setting the market up for a correction but we could see another push toward $3.47 which remains the target of the gap.  Here is the thing to remember, this target holds as long as the gap remains open so a break back to $3.00 would not negate the target and it would be a good buying opportunity based on current fundamentals.  In general, we could enter a time of back and forth between support and resistance so the next few days will be critical.

Wheat - Market testing support.  The chart looks horrible and I see a breaking of support at $4.97.

Beans - Still going on news that will end like a fourth of July bottle rocket.  Get ready to sell this one....

Rice - Still on the sidelines but the market is heading down into support.  The open interest is balanced so we may find ourselves testing the lows from a few weeks back.  We will want to replace longs especially if you have sold rice at $4.00 and are prepared to re-enter using futures or options.. 

Cattle - Further down today as the market rolls over after the bounce.  This sets us up to test the lows and I think they will be easily taken out.  The fundamentals are changing here and its not good news.   

Natural Gas - As I said this morning...natural gas hit our objective and now will test major support ay $7.00.  Longer term, we do not want to own anything here but owning December under $7.00 may be interesting.  I look for the accordion move of the deferred months back into the recent range.  Bull spreads are best.

Dow - We remain long here as nothing to change the over riding economy issues is happening.  If the Democrats win either of the houses, I look for a strong correction ere so get ready. 

Monday October 30th -  ....Opening Update

Grains - Corn tried to go lower early in the overnight session but rallied to finished unchanged.  We are setup for a trend day today but in which direction.  No reason to change our ideas here.  We see corn still running a bit higher yet and when it does, we will sell some corn.  The question will be how much given the current fundamentals.  Oh and by the way, the funds are now long over 285,000 contracts...incredible.

Sunday October 29th -  ....Friday's Closing Comments

Grains - Things will return to normal starting tomorrow (I hope).  There are not many comments for Friday's close other than corn holding every thing higher.  Wheat is performing terrible and still looks like a major top.  Corn still has a target of $3.47 and I think the techs will sell it like crazy once it hits there, but for now, the market remains very volatile and hard to trade.  I for one am glad I was gone last week and didn't trade it because it was "Cut-up" central.  This week may not be much better.

Rice - Nothing new here.  We remain mostly on the sidelines looking for a reason to own it.  That has been the right call so far. 

Cattle - The break here today may signal rejection but I'm not convinced just yet we have found enough selling to break us very far.  This week will be one to watch closely and a move back under 88.50 in December on a closing price, could bring in more selling. 

Natural Gas - We hit our objective of $8.50 and then found a lot of selling.  Weather concerns will need to be of historic proportion to stop the gas inventory from going even higher.  That means a test of major support which may be back under 7.00 for December. 

Friday October 27th -  ....Opening Update

Grains - Markets very strong overnight.  Wheat led the way so look for a push here early probably led by more bullish news from "down under."  I don't see a need to trade this right now so we will watch it go higher.  Once corn climbs over $3.40, we will be looking for selling to enter market but right now, sellers seem willing to let the market come to them.

Thursday October 26th -  ....Closing Update

Corn - This is beginning to look like a tennis match.  Watch the ball go back and forth across the net.  Corn still looks like it wants to climb for the $3.47 target and there appears to be good buying around $3.20.  A move under $3.15 changes the outlook near term but odds are not favoring that right now.  Even so, I am not trading this one this week since I am away from the market for long periods of time throughout the day.  (However long it takes to play the front or back nine.)  At this point I'm pretty happy about that as I can see a lot of "chop" going on here.  Look for corn to move higher still as that seems to be the direction of least resistance; however, things can change in a heart beat so do not get married to any position. 

Soybeans - Reversal yesterday but again, no follow through to the downs side and with out that, this market is not telling us it is finished going higher.  Even so, yesterday's high is resistance an a good place to sell against for technical traders so look for selling to increase if we can approach that level again.

Wheat - The chart looks pitiful and once again the selling seems more than enough on any rally to stop the advance.  Corn could drag it back higher from this level but all in all, I still say it looks like a significant high.

Rice - Nothing new.  We are currently below the 9 week moving average, the 21 day moving average and the trend is don.  PB is negative at 38% and the strength indicator pointed higher today on the bear leg indicating the start of a move down; however, the market closed higher on the day which negates that signal.   With all of that said, the higher close today provides a hook reversal up and now we wait to see if the market can follow through tomorrow.  It is uncanny how rice does the opposite of wheat these past few weeks and NO I don't think there is a correlation...it's just interesting.

Cattle - Big day up here and now I start looking for a place to sell this rally.  I hope it is not tomorrow as I will have little time to watch it but I would think not based on how it got here.  I think we have a few days...or should I say, I hope we have a few days.

Natural Gas - We have been warning of a move back to 8.50 in December and sure enough the electronic market it $8.50 only to sell off big time.  We may see another push near term but I doubt we can hold much above that level without some really bullish news.

Dow -  We are getting close to our 12,200 target.  I am looking for a spike reversal here at some point.

Thursday October 26th -  ....Opening Update

Grains - The reversals yesterday kept the overnight session lower.  If we work lower through out the day, these reversal actions may indeed hold for a while. Longer term we see new highs but again, our short term indicators are signally a pause on this sharply higher move.  In wheat we may want to finish our 4th quarter sales but we will give it today.

Wednesday October 25th -  ....Closing Update

Corn - Here we go again.  Today's action is one of a spike as the market ended higher but well down off of the highs.  Wheat and beans reversed.  Near term it looks like corn can continue to slowly power forward but it may have to do it on its own.  The chart remains bullish but the market is also over bought and the trend line is extremely steep.  The gap remains as does the $3.47 target but it could be weeks before that target is hit or it could be next week.  WHAT A MARKET!!!  For us, we like right where we are...long all the cash we can be long and if we need to sell some here in the fourth quarter, we wanted to 75% sold. 

Lets see what happens here the next two days.  $3.15 is now support and today's high resistance.

Soybeans - OK...a strong sign of a top in beans today with a huge spike and a hook reversal down.  Tomorrow will be key as a follow through n selling could indicate an intermediate top.  We may have some sales recommendations here soon.

Wheat - If we sell off tomorrow (Thursday), this market is yelling at us that a top is in place and it could be a big one.  Get ready to sell another 25% of fourth quarter sales and maybe our first 25% of the first quarter.  This is looking like a major top right now.

Rice - I still want to own it but not yet. 

Cattle - Up a little more today but there isn't any technical of fundamental reasons to trade right now.  hat could change any day.

Natural Gas - Still on track for $8.50...nothing new from us.  Cold weather has the bears re-thinking supply excess. Don't worry guys, It is still there!!!

Dow -  More up again today.  Still 12,200 on our hit list.

Wednesday October 25th -  ....MORNING UPDATE

Grains - Market was up again last night and it looks like corn will push toward the $3.47 target near tem.  Selling interest will increase as we get toward that level.  Wheat was also strong overnight as the battle for acres continues.  Pull backs remain possible and likely but the target price is now firmly controlling this move higher.  On rice, I doubt there will be much more selling in this level.  In Texas, we are already hearing of the levee's coming down for corn in those areas that can grow the crop.  Right now, there is a good supply of rice and the mills have no reason to pay up.  When the price sells acres even lower compared to wheat, beans, and corn, then we could see a strong move higher. There is time for this thing to just sit in this level.

Tuesday October 24th -  ....

PLEASE NOTE >>>      I am in North Carolina this week so the daily updates will be late everyday.  Friday's update will not be done until Saturday morning.

Corn - I said this morning that the odds of a short term top were 60-40.  The market proved me wrong today and if there is follow through tomorrow, we are ready to move toward he $3.47 level much earlier than I expected.  This is the target of the gap that we thought would be tested a week ago and while it tested the gap, I expected it closer than what we actually got.  Now the market is set to run quickly toward the gap target.

If we are going to hit $3.50 before Christmas, this sets up an even higher high in the spring.  While we sold some of our fourth quarter sales, we still have some to price in on this leg and we have been saying store what ever you can, for this very reason.  I know most of you are storing everything.  In any event, let me reiterate what I have been saying...DO NOT BE SHORT HERE IN AN EVENT!!! 

Soybeans - No sign of a top here and with corn set to run another 20 cents higher near term, look for beans to hold these gains near term.

Wheat - Still showing signs of a top but with corn running, wheat could challenge he highs again. We are sold higher than the close today on 75% of 4th quarter sales.  We will add here on a good sell indicator.

Rice - Sharply lower today on spec selling and fund liquidation.  We are approaching levels we might want to start to own longer term.  News that more rice is being bought from Thailand and Viet Nam because of the GMO issue, is weighing on prices as well.  Patience...we need to watch this a little longer. 

Cattle - A quiet day.  We may rally a bit more but the fundamentals have changed here.

Natural Gas - Back and forth we go.  Technically, we could rally more but I think we will find the market going down easier than going up.

Dow -  More up again today.  Still 12,200 on our hit list.

Monday October 23rd -  ....

PLEASE NOTE >>>      I am in North Carolina this week so the daily updates will be late everyday.  Friday's update will not be done until Saturday morning.

Corn - Reversal day today as the market put in a trend day higher after making a new low on the open.  Today's bounce was technical only as the funds came for it and comments from the floor indicate a desire for buyers to own this market before the next leg up. 

This bounce was expected but the question of whether we can start the second leg right here is very much in the minds of technical traders.  If tomorrow (Tuesday), the market reverses right back down, then the answer becomes "unlikely right now."  If we can move into new highs, then the market is saying we must move higher to stop the aggressive buying.  Today's action was one of those who missed the last rally getting on board.  Fundamentally, nothing changed today.

Soybeans - After the reversal last Friday the market found no follow through to the downside today so the sell setup was destroyed. Friday's low now becomes a sell signal for bean trades.

Wheat - Odd are now for a technical bounce to the $5.30 to $5.40 level.  Another reversal in this price range is possible as the market volatility continues.  Odds still favor a short term high and the chart remains bearish. 

Rice - Nothing new here.  We remain in the trading range from last Monday.  Long term we still like it but no sign of anything different right now.

Cattle - Exactly as we thought on Friday.  The market needs to find the sellers so it had a nice bounce today.  This could continue for a couple more days.

Natural Gas - Down day today but there is still no change in the formation as we look for buyers.  No reason to trade here yet.

Dow -  We remain long here and now look for some consolidation but still no sign of a significant top.  We still see 12,200 in the near future. 

Friday October 20th -  ....

PLEASE NOTE >>>      I specifically set the dates of October 22nd to October 29th for my vacation this year assuming it would be at a slower time of year.  Well, it is not slower but if I don't go on this trip, I'll be baching it for more than a week, if you get my drift.  I will have my computer with me and it is live on the market as long as I have a wireless phone connection.  I will be updating the webpage every day as long as I have a connection so if you don't see something here, you'll know I lost in some back part of the Carolinas (with a nine iron of course.)  Anyway, I should have updates for the closing each day but they will be late in the day.  Opening comments will be sporadic and there will be no mid-day updates next week.  Thanks for your understanding.

Corn - We have sold cash corn at good basis levels and and a good price on the cash we must sell in the fourth quarter.  Today's action again points to an intermediate top but a rally back to test the high is not out of the question.  The wheat chart looks extremely climatic and odds favor a dip here near term in both the wheat and corn. 

Again, this is short-term.  Long-term we see the market higher into the spring planting season and the fact we started a little early on this rally has not escaped us at all.  Another early start is possible so on this break we will start looking for any reason to own it. 

Soybeans - A reversal down in beans today now has the soybeans in a posture to sell off as well.  We need follow through on Monday and if it happens, look for a good break here and we will do some selling early in the week...vacation or no vacation.

Wheat - Can wheat go just straight down from here...yep, but it is not likely unless some bearish news hits the market.  Near term, we see the market up and then down but mostly lower to test the $4.90 level first and then maybe the $4.85 level.  Under $5.00 some people are going to want to own it but I think they can own it lower if nothing changes fundamentally.  We have sold 75% of must sell cash positions and will hold there for now.

Rice - Rice is going through more and more liquidation.  Open interest dropped 1000 contracts last week and that was with a sideways trading range.  No reason to change our position.  We have dropped back to 20% to 30% long depending on your position in January.  That is comfortable and we'll see what happens early next week.  On a good dip, we will probably start buying the Jan or even March if there is any volume out that far.

Cattle - Cattle report today is a little bearish so we may see some downward push but frankly I doubt much.  We had some selling a couple of days ago which probably put this report in the market.  We see the market drifting lower but early weakness next Monday may not hold through out the day and the market may want to check where the selling is in this one.

Natural Gas - Market slowly moves toward our $8.50 target we mentioned a couple of weeks back.  We are looking to sell here but not yet.  Hang on for a bit longer.

Dow -  We are long a little thinking 12,200 in the near future.  The market is accepting this range and may extend itself higher near term.

Wednesday October 18th -

Corn - On of those days where the market goes lower but really does not give us a downward push.  We put the low of the day in very early and then traded above that low the rest of the day.  Wheat went lower and closed setup to move lower again tomorrow (see below) but there is no real news to get the corn bulls to move into the sell column.  A move under today's low will bring about another round of selling and maybe allow for a test of $3.10.  Tomorrow's export sales numbers will be watch closely as well.

We are happy where we are on what we have sold (75%) of fourth quarter sales but will give the market some time here.  If you want new fundamentals to talk about, you are going to be in short supply near term.  There is little to add to the current picture and what we see is the market trading more technically near term.  It always amazes me when people say they don't watch technical indicators because they are fundamental traders.  To me, there are so many technical trades that it becomes part of fundamental picture.  A move under $3.10 near term may be an indication that the market has put in a top for awhile and will look for major support to build another short term sideways base. 

Soybeans - Market continues to rally.  The rice in price is technical in nature according to pit sources.  We still have no reason to sell.  

Wheat - Market lost another 17 cents today so our sales are looking pretty good; however, do not get too excited as the market can still rally a good bit while the market puts in this top IF it is indeed the top.  In any event, we have sold 75% of fourth quarter sales and are not believing this thing will go straight down.  We could easily get another surge back into the $5.35 to $5.45 level.  If we start to see more acres going in the ground, it will be hard for the market to make new highs until we get a weather scare but that will come after the end of the year.  Stay in close contact with us as we look for a place to add to sales or maybe buy some "Puts". 

One more thing...the chart is very bearish after the close today and is showing the possibility of a major sell off.  A move below $5.05 is very bearish.  We hope we get another look at a rally to price in the final 4th quarter sale.

Rice - WMP up 11 cents and the market rallied with that number up 10 cents on light volume.  No reason to own it here either but that could change.  We like rice long term and continue to store 100%. 

Cattle - A little higher but no change in our advice.  We are long in the field and have no futures positions right now. 

Natural Gas - Higher today as the market is looking more and more like it needs to rally.  Cold weather can get a grip quickly but the fundamentals look bearish and some bears are holding on.  I still see a possible move toward $8.50 in December.  No hedges for fertilizer or gas are recommend right here as we see the fundamentals too bearish to allow for the risk of a long futures play for fertilizer right here. 

Dow -  Big numbers the next couple of days.  Market will get a little more volatile as we digest their meaning.